无锡市区水资源与水环境承载力动态特征研究

Dynamic characteristics of water resources and water environmental carrying capacity in Wuxi urban area

水资源和水环境问题已成为无锡市社会经济发展的重要制约因素。文章从社会经济-水资源-水环境系统互馈机理出发,采用空间系统动力学方法建立“社会经济-水资源-水环境”耦合模型,对不同气候和社会经济发展情景下无锡市区水资源和水环境承载力的时空动态特征进行研究。结果显示:①不同情景下各行政区水资源和水环境承载系数满足滨湖区>锡山区>惠山区>新吴区>梁溪区的关系;②不同情景下水资源和水环境承载力有所差异,节水型丰水年(C1)情景下梁溪区、滨湖区、锡山区、惠山区和新吴区水资源承载力系数和水环境承载力系数月平均值分别是发展型枯水年(B3)情景下的2.23倍和2.36倍、2.13倍和3.22倍、2.13倍和2.55倍、2.12倍和2.53倍、1.58倍和1.74倍。实践表明,空间系统动力学模型能在时间和空间上协调处理社会经济与资源环境之间的关系,使模拟结果更加接近实际情况,可为同类地区的水资源管理提供科学依据。

Water resources and water environmental issues have emerged as significant constraints on the socio-economic development of Wuxi City.Based on the mechanism of mutual feedback within this system,a coupled model of the social-economy-water resources-water environmental was developed by means of spatial system dynamics.Subsequently,this model was employed to study the spatiotemporal dynamic characteristics of water resources and water environment carrying capacities in each subregion of Wuxi,considering various climate and socio-economic development scenarios.The results show that:①Both water resources carrying capacity coefficients and water environmental carrying capacity coefficients of each administrative district display in following order under different scenarios:Binhu District>Xishan District>Huishan District>Xinwu District>Liangxi District.②There are distinctions of water resources carrying capacity and water environment carrying capacity under different settings.Compared with B3 scenario(a developing society in a dry climate),the monthly average values of water resources carrying capacity coefficients and water environmental carrying capacity coefficients in Liangxi District,Binhu District,Xishan District,Huishan District,and Xinwu District under C1 scenario(a water saving and emission reduction society in a wet climate)are 2.23 and 2.36,2.13 and 3.22,2.13 and 2.55,2.12 and 2.53,1.58 and 1.74 times,respectively.The practice shows that the spatial system dynamics model effectively harmonizes the relations between social economy and resource environment in both time and space,modelling simulation results that closely align with actual conditions.Thus,it provides a robust scientific foundation for regional water resource management in similar areas.