加速调整变革的国际石油市场

Accelerated adjustment to a changing international oil market

2023年国际石油市场总体呈现油价地缘溢价消减但波动加剧,需求加快复苏但分化加剧,供给侧管理强化但博弈加大,市场与贸易格局加快重塑4个新特征。2024年宏观经济与地缘政治走势、新能源汽车发展节奏、“欧佩克+”产量政策与美联储货币政策等将继续影响和改变着国际石油市场。预计2024年国际石油市场总体供需宽松,国际油价仍处强势周期,油价中枢较上年或略有下移,但仍处中高位水平,不排除油价大涨大跌的可能。中国油气行业应更好发挥产业、市场、技术、贸易等优势,助力全球石油市场稳定。中国油气企业要加强科技创新和管理变革,坚持低成本发展,不断提升竞争力;更好发挥好上下游一体化和国内外资源市场联动优势,用好跨周期、逆周期调节工具,更好应对不确定的外部环境。

In 2023,the international oil market showed such four new features as geopolitical premiums for oil prices decreased but volatility increased,demand accelerated recovery but differentiation intensified,supply-side management strengthened but the game intensified,and the market and trade pattern accelerated reshaping.In 2024,macroeconomic and geopolitical trends,the pace of new energy automobile development,OPEC+production policy,and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy would continue to influence and change the international oil market.It is expected that the overall supply and demand of the international oil market in 2024 will be loose,international oil prices will still be in a strong cycle,and the pivot of oil prices may shift slightly downward compared with the previous year,but it will still be at a medium-high level with the possibility of a sharp changes.China's oil and gas industry should make better use of its advantages in industry,market,technology,and trade to help stabilize the global oil market,strengthen scientific and technological innovation and management change,adhere to the low-cost development,continuously improve its competitiveness,utilize the advantages of upstream and downstream integration and domestic and international resource market linkage well,and make good use of cross-cyclical and counter-cyclical adjustment tools so as to better cope with the uncertain external environment.