绿色甲醇产业发展现状及前景分析

Green methanol industrydevelopment status and prospect analysis

全球绿色甲醇产业驶入发展快车道,预计年产能将由2023年的50万吨快速扩张至2028年的1950万吨。电制甲醇或将成为未来绿色甲醇主流生产方式。未来生物质制甲醇生产成本下降潜力相对有限,电制甲醇生产成本下降空间较大。绿色化工原料或是绿色甲醇应用前景的基本盘。中国已初步构建起绿色甲醇产业生态,在市场需求、替代场景、技术路线等关键要素尚未完全明确的背景下,电力、化工等企业对绿色甲醇的投资意图各有侧重。全球绿色甲醇产业存在认证标准相对严苛、短期内面临供大于求的市场风险、航运巨头为绿色甲醇燃料付出超高溢价的行为或不可持续等不确定性。建议推进中国绿色甲醇认证标准的出台,探索建立绿色甲醇政府扶持政策,并突出龙头企业的“强链”引领作用。

The global green methanol industry is on the fast development track,the annual production capacity is expected to expand rapidly from 500,000 tons in 2023 to 19.5 million tons in 2028,and electrolytic methanol may become the mainstream production method of green methanol in the future.Future cost reduction potential of biomass-based methanol production will be relatively limited and the cost reduction space for electrolytic methanol production will be larger.Green chemical raw materials may become the basis for the development of green methanol application prospects.China has initially built a green methanol industry ecosystem and electric power and chemical companies have their own investment intentions for green methanol against the background of market demand,alternative scenarios,and technology routes have yet to be fully defined.There are such uncertainties in the global green methanol industry as relatively stringent certification standards,the market risk of supply exceeding demand in the short term,and the unsustainable behavior of shipping giants who pay a super high premium for green methanol fuel.It is recommended to promote the introduction of China's green methanol certification standards,explore the establishment of government support policies for green methanol,and highlight the leading role of industry leaders in strengthening a strong supply chain.