量化历史研究是否意味着人的消失

Does Quantitative Historical Research Imply the Disappearance of the Human Element?

大数据时代,新的信息处理技术深刻影响了当前历史学的发展。文献资料爆炸式增长、信息日趋数据化以及处理工具的创新,为量化历史研究方法的应用提供了重要契机。量化历史研究以量化数据库为基础,借鉴社会科学的理论与方法,着重揭示历史演进的规律性与因果关系,这一方法在面对长时段、大问题,以及对抗碎片化研究方面优势明显。量化方法正成为传统史学方法的有益补充。作为跨学科领域,量化历史研究需要不同学科背景的研究者加强合作。量化方法虽然以数字为基础,偏重社会结构的讨论与分析,但也不会忽略数字背后折射出的“人的历史”。量化历史研究对普通人生活经验的关注以及对数据的考证辨析过程,体现了历史学对“人”的关切。历史学应结合微观视角,兼采量化方法和阐释分析的优长,形成有“生命”维度的综合性研究。

Quantitative historical research,based on quantitative databases and borrowing from theories and methods of social sciences,focuses on uncovering the patterns and causal relationships of historical evolution.This approach has obvious advantages in addressing long time spans,major issues,and countering fragmented research.Quantitative methods are becoming a useful complement to traditional historiographical methods.As an interdisciplinary field,quantitative historical research requires greater collaboration between researchers from various disciplinary backgrounds.Although numerically based and emphasizing the discussion and analysis of social structures,quantitative methods do not overlook the"human history"reflected in the data.The attention given to the everyday experiences of ordinary people and the process of verifying and analyzing data demonstrate history's concern for"human"elements.Historiography should combine a micro-perspective with the strengths of both quantitative methods and interpretive analysis to form a comprehensive study with a"life"dimension.