中国经济增长质量周期结构估计——基于动态生产网络模型

Structural Estimating of China's Economic Growth Quality Cycle:Based on the Dynamic Production Network Model

本文首先构建包含家庭异质性、环境与扭曲因素的生产网络模型,导出影响与决定经济增长质量的四个主要渠道,即经济增长效率、居民消费水平、社会不平等程度和环境外部性。接着将静态生产网络模型拓展至动态情形,首次运用卡尔曼平滑方法对经济增长质量的动态路径进行结构估计,刻画出2000一2021年我国经济增长质量周期,并分解四渠道在其周期性波动过程中的贡献程度。观测区间内我国经济增长质量周期平均长度为3年,具有上升阶段持续时间长、下降阶段延续时间短等特点。随后与同期经济周期对比发现,经济增长质量(尤其是经济增长效率)与宏观经济产出间具有强关联性,在特定冲击下其(特别是环境外部性和社会不平等程度)与宏观经济产出间呈现逆向波动,并引致经济增长质量周期与经济周期间一定程度的“谷峰交错”即偏离“量质兼取”目标的情形。因而必须妥善应对外生冲击挑战,强化目标导向,重视增长与质量政策的协调性,发挥技术创新、结构改革与生态建设等政策的协同效应,促进质的有效提升与量的合理增长。

Since China's economy started to transition from the stage of high-speed growth to that of highquality development,theoretical research has focused on the issue of high-quality economic development in China,especially its basic connotations,essential characteristics,practical requirements,and policy choices.Theoretical interpretation and academic research were conducted,with notable progress.Although"economic development"has a wider and deeper coverage than"economic growth,"and the current research focus is expanding toward high-quality development,as an extremely important part of economic development research,theoretical issues such as economic growth and growth quality are still highly valued by the academic community.Although research on the quality of economic growth,such as its connotation,the construction of analytical frameworks,and empirical analysis of its cyclical fluctuation characteristics,still needs to expand in depth and breadth,overall previous research had gradually broken away from the single-dimensional theoretical analysis and focused on the multi-dimensional examination of economic growth quality,shifted away from static equilibrium analysis to general equilibrium research of total supply and demand,from theoretical interpretation to quantitative and case studies,laying a good foundation for further research.Based on this,the paper begins by constructing a production network model that incorporates household heterogeneity,the environment,and distortion factors.It then derives the primary channels that affect and determine the quality of economic growth,which are economic growth efficiency,resident consumption levels,social inequality degree,and environmental externalities.Next,the static production network model is extended to encompass dynamic scenarios with the model calibrated using data such as the WIOD input-output tables.Subsequently,this paper employs perturbation method to solve the dynamic production network model,integrating the observed data into the observation equation.The Kalman Smoothing method is then utilized to infer exogenous shocks,thereby estimating the unobservable dynamic path of economic growth quality,namely the economic growth quality cycle,for the first time.At the same time,the contribution of the four channels to the fluctuation process of economic growth quality cycle is decomposed,and the economic growth quality cycle is compared with the economic cycle.The results show that China's economic growth quality cycles within the observed interval,with each lasting approximately three years,are characterized by long upward phases and short downward phases.Moreover,compared with the economic cycle of the same period,the economic growth quality cycle exhibits a strong correlation between the economic growth quality(especially the economic growth efficiency)and macroeconomic output,but under specific shocks(especially the environmental externalities and social inequality degree),it shows a reverse effect.Furthermore,the economic growth quality cycle exhibits a certain degree of"valley-peak alternating"with the economic cycle,which deviates from the goal of"striking a balance between quantity and quality."Consequently,it is imperative to strengthen the goal orientation,coordinate economic growth and growth quality policies,give play to the synergy of policies on technological innovation,structural reform and ecological conservation,promote the effective improvement in quality and the reasonable growth in quantity.This paper makes several contributions.From the perspective of the economic growth theory,this paper constructs a production network model to carry out a rigorous theoretical derivation of economic growth quality,devotes to avoid the subjective limitations of determining the economic growth quality dimensions,and takes the component of economic growth quality implied by the model as the main content and focus of economic growth quality research.In addition,although some scholars are concerned that the economic growth quality fluctuates by stage,there still lacks literature on the economic growth quality cycle,a research gap filled by this paper.From the perspective of the empirical method,by extending the static production network model to include the dynamic production network,unlike existing literature which only considers representative households,this paper introduces the setting of household heterogeneity for the first time.Due to its significant impact on social welfare analysis,this setting not only enriches the dynamic production network model,but also makes a new attempt to expand the research on social welfare.Meanwhile,based on the expanded production network model,this paper combines the Kalman Smoothing method of the state space model for the first time to make the structural estimation of the economic growth quality cycle,thus makes a breakthrough in the empirical method.In addition,compared to the growth accounting methods currently used by scholars in structural model,the structural estimation of economic growth quality cycle in this paper is essentially to infer the cyclical components of unobservable variables(implied by the model),and hence the empirical method used in this paper also adds to the growth accounting methods to choose from.