美债减持与国际货币体系多元化路径

Reduced Holdings of US Treasury Bonds and the Path to Diversification of the International Monetary System

以美元为中心的国际货币体系作为一种霸权体系具有内在不稳定性,而国际货币体系一直未能形成真正的多元格局。通过对霸权稳定论、均势理论和国际货币权力理论的批判,结合国际金融理论的定性与定量分析,从美国政府债务压力与美元国际信用的相互影响这一视角出发开展研究,可以发现国际货币体系变革存在一条和平、渐进的市场演化路径。在市场条件下,美国政府不断加重的公共债务成为导致美元国际信用下降的重要因素之一,而美元国际信用下降与其他国际货币的持续崛起将推动各国官方减持美国国债、降低美元储备,从而引起美国中长期国债利率上升、财政压力增大,最终形成国际货币体系从霸权走向多元的自我增强型循环。情景模拟即展现了市场条件下美债减持对美国财政产生的潜在冲击及其推动国际货币体系多元化的动态路径。

The dollar-centric international monetary system is inherently unstable as a hegemonic system,while the formation of a multi-polar international monetary system remains elusive.Through the critique of hegemonic stability theory,balance of power theory and international monetary power theory,combined with qualitative and quantitative analyses of international financial theory,research conducted from the perspective of the interaction between the pressure of the US government's debt and the international credit of the US dollar reveals the existence of a peaceful and gradual market evolution path for international monetary system reform.Under market conditions,the US government's escalating public debt has become one of the key factors leading to the decline of the dollar's international credit.This decline,coupled with the sustained rise of other international currencies,will push foreign official institutions to reduce their holdings of US treasury bonds and lower dollar reserves.Consequently,this will trigger an increase in America's medium-and longterm interest rates on treasury bonds and exacerbate fiscal pressures.Ultimately,this sets in motion a self-reinforcing cycle that transitions the international monetary system from hegemony towards diversity.Scenario simulations illustrate the potential impact of reduced US treasury bonds holdings on the US fiscal landscape under market conditions,as well as the dynamic trajectory it would set in motion towards the diversification of the international monetary system.