以人口高质量发展支撑中国式现代化的逻辑进路

The logical approach of supporting Chinese path to modernization with high quality population development

人口问题始终是我国面临的全局性、长期性、战略性问题,人口发展是关系中华民族伟大复兴的大事。世界实践与理论研究表明,人口与经济协调发展是各国走向现代化的基础和前提,推进和实现现代化必须高度重视人口与经济发展的关系规律。我国正处于人口转变结构性矛盾叠加阶段,正在面对生育率降低、老龄化加剧、人口增势相对不足等结构性问题,同时,在数量、质量、结构、效率等四个维度上我国逐渐形成了人口高质量发展的基础与优势,“质量型人口红利”替代“数量型人口红利”已成为推进我国实现可持续发展的有利条件,为支撑中国式现代化奠定了良好基础。应以持续提升人口质量为核心,统筹考虑我国人口规模、质量、结构变动趋势,处理好两次人口红利的接续关系,延长人口红利释放周期;处理好人力资源与人力资本的关系,促进劳动力配置效益最大化;处理好科技创新与人口发展的关系,以新质生产力增强应对人口老龄化能力。

The population issue has always been a global,long-term,and strategic issue facing China,and population development is a major event related to the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.World practice and theoretical research have shown that the coordinated development of population and economy is the foundation and prerequisite for countries to move towards modernization.To promote and achieve modernization,it is necessary to attach great importance to the relationship between population and economic development.China is in the stage of superimposed structural contradictions in population transition,facing structural problems such as declining fertility rate,intensifying aging,and relatively insufficient population growth.At the same time,China has gradually formed the foundation and advantages of high-quality population development in the four dimensions of quantity,quality,structure and efficiency.“Quality demographic dividend”instead of“Quantitative demographic dividend”has become a favorable condition for promoting China's sustainable development,and has laid a good foundation for supporting Chinese-style modernization.We should take the continuous improvement of population quality as the core,comprehensively consider the trend of population size,quality,and structural changes in China,handle the continuity relationship between the two population dividends,and extend the period of population dividend release;Handle the relationship between human resources and human capital well,and promote the maximization of labor force allocation efficiency;Handle the relationship between technological innovation and population development well,and enhance the ability to respond to population aging with new quality productivity.