山东省农业碳排放时序特征与趋势演进研究

Temporal Characteristics and Trend Evolution of Agricultural Carbon Emissions in Shandong Province

研究山东省农业生产碳排放时序特征对制定合理的农业减碳政策具有重要意义。本文对2000—2020年山东省农业碳排放进行测算和分析。结果表明:20年内山东省农业碳排放总量总体呈先增后降趋势,政策推动农业碳减排。不同类型碳排放结构中,结构相对稳定,畜禽养殖和农资投入表现出强相关性。农业碳排放强度的同比变化波动较大,整体呈下降趋势,显示出山东省在促进农业碳减排方面做出了巨大努力。R/S分析表明山东省农业碳排放序列具有长期记忆性,碳排放总量和碳排放强度未来预计继续呈现下降态势。

Studying the temporal characteristics of carbon emissions in agricultural production in Shandong province is of significant importance for formulating rational agricultural decarbonization policies.Calculations and analyses were conducted on agricultural carbon emissions in Shandong province from 2000 to 2020.The results indicate that the overall trend of total agricultural carbon emissions in Shandong province showed an initial increase followed by a subsequent decrease over the20-year period,suggesting policy-driven reduction in agricultural carbon emissions.The carbon emission structure remained relatively stable,with strong correlations observed in livestock and poultry farming as well as agricultural input.The year-on-year fluctuations in agricultural carbon emission intensity were significant,displaying an overall decreasing trend,reflecting substantial efforts made by Shandong province to promote agricultural carbon reduction.R/S analysis reveals that the agricultural carbon emission sequence in Shandong province exhibits long-term memory,and both total carbon emissions and emission intensity are expected to continue decreasing in the future.