基于能源碳排放影响因素的京津冀城市群碳达峰研究

Research on carbon peaking of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration based on the influencing factors of energy carbon emissions

文章根据碳排放因子法测算京津冀城市群2005—2022年能源消费碳排放量,采用扩展的STIRPAT模型分析了京津冀城市群碳排放的影响因素。采用情景分析法分别预测了3种不同情景下的碳达峰年份及碳排放量。结果表明,人口规模、人均GDP、能源消费程度、城镇化率显著影响碳排放量;北京市在基准情景和清洁发展情景下2025年最早实现碳达峰;天津市在清洁发展情景和绿色发展情景下2025年最早实现碳达峰;河北省在清洁发展情景和绿色发展情景下2027年最早实现碳达峰。最后根据各地区特征制定差异化的碳达峰实现路径,促进京津冀城市群碳达峰目标早日实现。

This paper measures the carbon emissions of energy consumption in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration in 2005—2022 according to the carbon emission factor method,and analyses the influencing factors of carbon emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration using the extended STIRPAT model.The scenario analysis method is used to predict the year of carbon peaking and carbon emissions in three different scenarios.The results show that the population size,GDP per capita,energy consumption,and urbanisation rate significantly affect carbon emissions;Beijing achieved the earliest carbon peak in 2025 under the benchmark scenario and clean development scenario;Tianjin achieved the earliest carbon peak in 2025 under the clean development scenario and green development scenario;Hebei Province achieved the earliest carbon peak in 2027 under the clean development scenario and green development scenario.Finally,according to the characteristics of each region,a differentiated carbon peak realisation path is formulated to promote the early realization of the carbon peak target of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration.