川滇地区地震动预测模型研究

Research on Earthquake Motion Prediction Models in the Sichuan-Yunnan Region of China

近年来随着强震台站的兴建,获得大量的真实地震动记录。为运用地震动记录开展更多研究,探讨建立川滇地区地震动预测模型。本文基于真实地震动记录和随机效应回归算法提出地震动预测模型思路;通过选取特定区域并收集地震动数据,建立地震动预测模型;利用残差分析法,研究地震动预测模型的性能;通过与国内外典型的地震动预测模型进行对比,论证所提方法的有效性。研究结果表明,提出的地震动预测模型能较好地预测地震动强度参数。

In recent years,with the construction of strong motion stations,a large number of real earthquake motion records have been obtained.To utilize these records for further research,this paper discusses the establishment of an earthquake motion prediction model for the Sichuan-Yunnan region.Based on real earthquake motion records and a random effect regression algorithm,we propose a conceptual approach for an earthquake motion prediction model;by selecting a specific area and collecting earthquake motion data,we establish a prediction model;the performance of the earthquake motion prediction model is studied using residual analysis;by comparing with typical domestic and international earthquake motion prediction models,we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.The results show that the proposed earthquake motion prediction model can predict the intensity parameters of earthquake motion well.