基于历史数据的水库事故链演化概率研究

Research on evolutionary probability of dam failure fault chains based on historical data

水库一旦溃决将造成严重的生命财产损失,溃坝过程具有典型的链式特征,辨识溃坝事故链典型模式与演化特征有利于工程防灾减灾工作的开展。土石坝是我国水库大坝的主要坝型之一,以土石坝为研究对象,针对水库溃坝事件致灾因素复杂、不确定性强、量化分析手段单一等问题,通过深入挖掘历史溃坝数据中的潜在风险事件和破坏模式,建立了土石坝溃坝事故链网络模型;基于溃坝年代特征差异,利用风险事件共现矩阵定量分析了典型溃坝案例中风险事件间的关联度及影响度;提出了量化分析土石坝溃决事故链演化概率的计算方法,并将演化结果与现有研究成果进行对比分析,一定程度验证了所提方法的有效性和可行性。研究成果为加强水库大坝风险防控提供了重要的技术支撑。

Once a dam breaks,it will cause serious loss of life and property.The dam failure process shows typical chain characteristics,and identifying the typical patterns and evolutionary characteristics of dam failure accident chains is conducive to the development of engineering disaster prevention and mitigation work.Embankment dam is one of the main dam types of reservoir dams in China.Aiming at the problems of complex disaster-causing factors,strong uncertainty and single quantitative analysis method of dam failure events,the paper takes embankment dam as the research object,and establishes a complex network model of embankment dam failure accident chains by deeply exploring the potential risk events and dam failure patterns in historical dam failure data.Based on the differences in the chronological characteristics of embankment dam failures,it quantifies the correlation degree and influence degree among the risk events in typical dam failure accident chains using a risk event co-occurrence matrix.The method of quantifying the probability of evolution of embankment dam failure accident chains is proposed,and the evolution results are compared with the existing research results,which verifies the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method to a certain extent.The research results provide important technical support for strengthening the risk prevention and control of reservoir dam.