2002-2021年我国狂犬病发病趋势的Joinpoint回归分析

Joinpoint regression analysis on trends of human rabies incidence in China from 2002 to 2021

目的分析2002-2021年我国狂犬病发病的时间变化趋势特征,为狂犬病的防控提供参考依据。方法收集公共卫生科学数据共享中心、国家卫生健康委员会网站、《中国卫生健康统计年鉴》中的狂犬病发病资料,采用Joinpoint回归分析2002-2021年我国东部、中部和西部狂犬病发病率的时间变化趋势。结果2002-2021年狂犬病年均发病率为0.11/10万,2007-2021年以19.54%的年变化百分比下降(t=-8.41,P<0.05),平均年变化百分比为10.7%(95%CI:-12.3~-8.43,P<0.05)。东部地区在2016-2021年以36.51%的年变化百分比快速下降(t=-4.63,P<0.05),平均年变化百分比为-14.6%(95%CI:-16.4~-12.9,P<0.05)。中部地区的狂犬病发病率高于东部和西部,2002-2004年狂犬病发病率呈快速上升趋势(t=2.76,P<0.05),变化百分比为65.12%。西部地区在2019-2021年以49.51%的年变化百分比快速下降,平均年变化百分比为-9.8%(95%CI:-11.3~-8.5,P<0.05)。2002-2021年我国1-3月狂犬病发病率和平均增长速度整体上均低于4-12月(P<0.05),但第二、三、四季度发病率变化趋势差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。结论2002-2021年我国狂犬病发病率呈持续下降趋势,中部地区狂犬病发病率高于东、西部,且发病率下降时间早于东部和西部,但东、西部地区狂犬病发病率下降速度超过中部地区。

Objective To analyze the time trend characteristics of human rabies incidence in China from 2002 to 2021,so as to provide a reference for rabies prevention and control.Methods Data of human rabies incidence were collected from Public Health Science Data Sharing Center of China,the China Statistical Yearbook of Health and the official website of the National Health Commission.Joinpoint regression analysis was used to analyze the time trend characteristics of human rabies incidence in eastern,western and central areas of China during 2002 to 2021.Results An average annual incidence of human rabies incidence in China from 2002 to 2021 was 0.11 cases/10~5.Human rabies incidence increased annually by 19.54%from 2007 to 2021(t=-8.41,P<0.05),with an average annual percent change of 10.7%(95%CI:-12.3--8.43,P<0.05).Human rabies incidence in eastern areas descended annually by 36.51%from 2016 to 2021(t=-4.63,P<0.05),with an average annual percent change of-14.6%(95%CI:-16.4--12.9,P<0.05).Human rabies incidence in central areas exceeded eastern areas and western areas,meanwhile human rabies incidence in central areas increased annually by 65.12%from 2002 to 2004(t=2.76,P<0.05).Human rabies incidence in western areas descended annually by 49.51%from 2019 to 2021,with an average annual percent change of-9.8%(95%CI:-11.3--8.5,P<0.05).The human rabies incidence and average growth rate in January to March were lower than that in April to December from 2002 to 2021(P<0.05),nevertheless there was no significant difference in the trend of incidence between the second quarter to fourth quarter(P>0.05).Conclusion The incidence of human rabies of China shows a trend of continuous decrease.The incidence of human rabies in central areas is higher than that in eastern and western areas,while the rate of descent in eastern and western areas is higher than that in central areas.