1990―2019年中国偏头痛发病趋势及其年龄-时期-队列分析

Trends in migraine incidence and age-period-cohort analysis in China from 1990 to 2019

目的探讨1990—2019年全球疾病负担数据库(GBD2019)中国人群偏头痛发病趋势及与年龄、时期、队列三因素间的影响效应。方法本研究数据来源于GBD2019,采用Joinpoint软件分析偏头痛发病率的变化趋势;结合Stata 17.0软件分析中国人群偏头痛的年龄-时期-队列模型并估算其发病率的年龄、时期和队列效应。结果1990—2019年中国总人群、男性和女性的偏头痛标化发病率呈波动上升趋势,平均年度变化百分比分别为0.23%、0.27%和0.21%;年龄-时期-队列模型显示,1990—2019年我国人群偏头痛发病风险随着年龄的增大而减小,随着时期的增加呈现出下降的趋势,随着出生队列的递增而增加,表明现期偏头痛发病风险的队列效应起主导作用,且出生队列靠后的女性发病风险开始逐渐高于男性。结论1990—2019年中国人群偏头痛发病率总体呈上升趋势,年龄越小、时期越早、出生队列越靠后的女性人群偏头痛的发病风险越大,提示需加强10~54岁年龄段女性人群的偏头痛防治工作,进一步降低我国偏头痛的发病率。

Objective To investigate the incidence trend of migraine in Chinese from 1990 to 2019 in the global burden of disease database(GBD2019)and its effect on three factors:age,period and cohort.Methods Data were obtained from GBD2019.Joinpoint software was used to analyze the changes in migraine incidence.We analyzed the ageperiod-cohort(APC)model of migraine in the Chinese population with Stata 17.0 software and estimated the effect of age,period,and cohort on migraine incidence.Results From 1990 to 2019,the standardized incidence of migraine in the general population,and in men and women in China showed a fluctuating upwards trend,and the average annual percentage changes were 0.23%,0.27%and 0.21%,respectively.The APC model showed that from 1990 to 2019,the risk of migraine in China decreased with the increase of age,showed a downward trend with the increase of the period,and increased with the increase of the birth cohort,indicating that the cohort effect played a dominant role in the risk of migraine in the current period,and the risk of women in the rear of the birth cohort began to be gradually higher than that of men.Conclusion The incidence of migraine in Chinese population is on the rise from 1990 to 2019,and the younger the age,the earlier the period,and the lower the birth cohort,the greater the risk of migraine,suggesting that the prevention and treatment of migraine in women aged 10 to 54 years should be strengthened to further reduce the incidence of migraine in China.