卡尔曼滤波融合多源排放清单算法下的粤港澳大湾区FFCO_(2)排放时空演变格局研究

Spatiotemporal Evolution Pattern of FFCO_(2) Emissions in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Based on Kalman Filter Using Multi-Source Emission Inventory Fusion

在卫星碳观测用于区域减排存在技术壁垒的背景下,全球尺度的高分辨率化石燃料二氧化碳(FFCO_(2))排放清单成为区域FFCO_(2)排放研究的主要数据来源,但现有的全球尺度FFCO_(2)排放清单用于区域研究仍存在显著的不确定性。为此,本研究定量分析3种全球尺度的高分辨率FFCO_(2)排放清单(ODIAC 2020b,EDGAR v6.0,PKU-CO_(2)-v2)用于区域尺度研究的差异性和变异性,然后基于卡尔曼滤波将3组数据进行特征融合,探讨了粤港澳大湾区FFCO_(2)排放的时空演变格局。结果表明:①当前FFCO_(2)排放清单数据间存在着显著的差异性和变异性特点,以大湾区为例,在最佳表征空间分辨率3 km×3 km下,区域内网格单元的平均差异性达到140%,变异系数达到16.3%,单一的全球尺度FFCO_(2)排放清单数据用于区域或城市的FFCO_(2)排放研究结果不准确;②经卡尔曼滤波融合重构的2000—2018年长时间序列的新数据显示:卡尔曼滤波融合结果的不确定性由±15%~20%减少至±10%;③2000—2018年,大湾区FFCO_(2)排放的总体布局是广深港澳中心高排放,向外围区域逐渐降低为低排放区,并形成深圳、香港→广州→佛山、东莞→中山的排放转移路径。本文提出的区域FFCO_(2)排放研究思路在大湾区进行了示范应用,同时可应用于其他区域和城市。本研究的结论将为大湾区能源、资源优化布局提供科学依据,对低碳转型及高质量发展和“美丽湾区”建设具有重要意义。

Due to technical gaps in using satellite carbon observations for regional emission reduction,highresolution,global-scale Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide(FFCO_(2))emission inventories have become the main data sources for regional FFCO_(2) emission research.However,there are still significant uncertainties in use of existing global-scale FFCO_(2) emission inventories for regional research.Therefore,this paper quantitatively analyzed the differences and variabilities of high-resolution FFCO_(2) emission inventories(ODIAC 2020b,EDGAR v6.0,and PKU-CO_(2)-v2)at the regional scale and fused these three inventories based on Kalman filtering algorithm.Then,this paper explored the spatial and temporal evolution pattern of FFCO_(2) emissions in the Guangdong-Hong KongMacao Greater Bay Area(GBA).The results show that:(1)There were significant differences and variability among the current FFCO_(2) emission inventories.Taking the GBA as an example,under the optimal representation spatial resolution of 3 km×3 km,the average difference of grid cells within the region reached 140%,and the coefficient of variation was 16.3%.The use of a single global scale FFCO_(2) emission inventory data for regional or urban FFCO_(2) emission studies resulted in inaccurate results;(2)The reconstructed long term data from 2000 to 2018 using Kalman filter showed that the uncertainty decreased from±15%~20%to±10%;(3)From 2000 to 2018,the overall pattern of FFCO_(2) emissions in the GBA was characterized by high emissions in Guangzhou,Shenzhen,Hong Kong,and Macao,low emission areas in the peripheral areas,and an emission transfer path from Shenzhen,Hong Kong→Guangzhou→Foshan,Dongguan→Zhongshan.The approach for regional FFCO_(2) emissions proposed in this paper is demonstrated in the GBA and is applicable to other regions and cities.The conclusions of this research will provide a scientific basis for the optimal layout of energy and resources in the Greater Bay Area,which is of great significance for low-carbon transformation,high-quality development,and the construction of Beautiful Bay Area.