2000—2040年黄河流域(河南段)生境质量时空格局演变及驱动力分析

Evolution of the Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Habitat Quality and Analysis of the Driving Forces in Yellow River Basin(Henan Section)from 2000 to 2040

实现经济发展与生态保护的共赢是一个世界性难题。随着经济社会的发展,人类活动强度对区域生境质量产生不同程度的影响,在欠发达地区这种影响往往是负面的,因此实现人口稠密的欠发达地区经济发展与生境保护相结合具有重要意义。以黄河流域(河南段)为例,基于InVEST模型生境质量模块与PLUS模型对该区域2000—2021年(历史时期)生境质量时空演变特征进行分析,并以5年为步长对2025年、2030年、2035年和2040年的生境质量进行模拟。研究结果表明:(1)历史时期研究区生境质量均值下降了0.05,呈下降趋势,生境质量高值区集中分布在研究区西南和西北部的山地,呈西高东低的分布格局。(2)历史时期研究区44.74%区域生境质量显著下降,下降区域分布在城乡建设和道路扩张用地区域,西部山区此趋势最为突出。33.81%区域生境质量显著上升,上升区域分布在东部耕地区域和西部林地。研究区生境破碎化趋势加强,海拔与植被等自然要素对区域生境质量水平影响显著,与生境质量水平正相关。(3)2025—2040年不同土地利用情景下的未来生境质量格局差异明显,生态保护情境下生境质量水平呈上升趋势,耕地保护情景下生境质量均值稳定中呈现小幅度提升,城市发展情景下生境质量均值呈现明显下降趋势,不同发展情景下人类活动对区域生境质量影响显著。本研究有助于进一步了解区域生境质量的发展趋势与对土地利用变化的响应。

Practicing a win-win strategy between economic development and ecological protection is a challenging issue worldwide.With the development of economy and social civilization,the intensity of human activities that affects the quality of regional habitats show in different degrees.Particularly,in the developing areas,this effect is often negative,so it is of great significance to practice the combination of economic development and habitat protection in the densely populated and developing areas.Taking the Yellow River Basin(Henan section)as a study example,the spatial and temporal evolution of habitat quality in this region from 2000 to 2021(historical period)were analyzed based on the habitat quality module of InVEST and the PLUS models.Furthermore,the habitat quality in 2025,2030,2035,and 2040 was predicted with an interval of 5 years.The results of the study showed that:(1)the mean value of habitat quality during the historical period decreased by 0.05,showing a decreasing trend.The areas of high habitat quality were concentrated in the southwestern and northwestern mountainous areas,showing a distribution pattern of high in the west and low in the east.(2)During the historical period,44.74%of the study area experienced a significant decline in habitat quality,mainly occurring in urban and rural construction and road expansion areas.This trend was the most prominent in the western mountainous areas.33.81%of the study area experienced a significant increase in habitat quality,mainly occurring in the eastern cropland areas and western forested areas.The trend of habitat fragmentation in the study area enhances during the period,and the natural elements such as elevation and vegetation have significant impacts on the regional habitat quality,which is positively correlated with the habitat quality.(3)The future habitat quality patterns under different land use scenarios from 2025 to 2040 differ significantly,with an upward trend in the ecological protection scenario and a slight increase in the mean value of habitat quality in the arable land protection scenario.It also shows a significant downward trend in the mean value of habitat qua-lity in the urban development scenario and a significant impact of human activities on the quality of regional habitats under different development scenarios.This study provides further understandings on the development trend of regional habitat quality and its response to land use changes.