基于InVEST模型的新疆1990—2018年产水服务时空变化及驱动因素分析

Spatiotemporal Changes and Driving Factors of Water Yield Service Based on InVEST Model in Xinjiang from 1990 to 2018

产水服务是重要的生态系统服务功能之一,评估产水服务空间分异特征、明确不同自然资源分区的关键驱动因子,是维系新疆生态安全和可持续发展的关键。本研究利用InVEST模型模拟新疆1990—2018年产水服务时空变化,选择气候、土壤、地形、土地利用等因子,采用地理探测器开展产水服务空间异质性归因分析。结果表明:(1)1990—2018年新疆产水总量变化为524.39×10^(8)~683.42×10^(8)m^(3),高值区集中在阿尔泰山、准噶尔盆地西部山地及天山山地等地区。(2)研究区不同地类的产水能力不同,其中荒漠和林地的产水能力最高,草地和水体与湿地其次,耕地和建设用地产水能力最差。(3)在新疆全域,气候类因子的解释能力最强,尤其是年总降水量因子,解释能力达到0.9以上;不同自然资源分区,产水服务空间分异的主要驱动因子存在明显差异,但年总降水量因子仍为第一主导因子。(4)因子的交互作用对产水服务的空间分布解释能力大于单个因子的解释能力,气候因子与地形因子的交互作用解释能力最强,其次是气候因子与土地利用因子的交互。因此,新疆产水服务的维持与保护工作应充分考虑气候、地形、土地利用等因素,制定合理的水资源管理和保护措施。

Water yield is one of the important ecosystem services.It is a key to maintain ecological safety and sustainable development in Xinjiang,to evaluate the spatial differentiation of water yield service,and to clarify the key driving factors of different natural resource partitions.In this study,we simulated the spatial and temporal changes of water yield service in Xinjiang from 1990 to 2018 using the InVEST model.The climate,soil,topography,land-use,and other factors were selected,and the geographical detector was used,to carry out the attribution analysis of spatial heterogeneity of water yield services.The results show that(1)the variation range of total water yield in Xinjiang from 1990 to 2018 is 524.39×10^(8)-683.42×10^(8) m^(3),and the high value areas were mainly located in Altay Mountains,Western Junggar Basin,and Tianshan Mountains.(2)The water yield capacity of different land types differs,among which the water yield capacities of desert and forest land are in the highest level,followed by grassland,water-body,and wetland.The water yield capacities of cultivated land and construction land are in the worst level.(3)In the whole Xinjiang region,the explanatory power of climatic factors is the strongest,especially the annual total precipitation,which can accounts for>0.9 of the whole.There are pronounced differences in the main driving factors of spatial differentiation of water yield services in different natural resource divisions,but the total annual precipitation is the dominant factor.(4)The explanatory power of the interaction factors on the spatial distribution of water yield services is greater than that of individual factors.The interaction between climatic factors and topographic factors has the strongest explanatory power,followed by the interaction between climatic factors and land-use factors.Therefore,in terms of the maintenance and protection of the water yield services in Xinjiang,the factors such as climate,topography,and land-use should be fully considered in to formulate appropriate water resources management and protection measures.