2025—2035年我国学前教育资源需求变化及政策建议:基于学前人口预测的分析

Changes in Demand for Preschool Education Resources and Policy Recommendations in China from 2025 to 2035:an Analysis Based on Preschool Population Projection

基于人口平衡方程,采用第七次全国人口普查数据,在对死亡率、生育率和在园幼儿占比等因素进行预测与分析的基础上,对2025—2035年我国学前教育在园幼儿规模及与其相适应的教育资源配置进行分析。研究发现:预测期内我国总和生育率水平虽有所回升,但仍较低,2035年约为1.344;预测期内适龄幼儿人数在2026年达到最低,整体是先降后趋缓和,呈一较扁平的U型;随着学前教育在园幼儿人数增加,生均教育经费需求逐年增长。在此期间,无论是在2026年还是在2035年,专任教师、保育员及教职工均会出现需求不足,并低于2022年水平;若调整2035年总和生育率水平为1.4或1.2时,与2022年相比,前者导致教育资源需求增加,后者导致教育资源供给过剩。据此提出降低家庭教育成本、做好未来出生人口监测、增加学前教育生均教育经费投入等建议,以保证学前教育高质量发展。

According to the population balance equation and the data from the seventh national population census,the scale of children in kindergarten in China’s preschool education from 2025 to 2035 and corresponding educational resource allocation are analyzed based on forecasting and analyzing factors such as the mortality rate,fertility rate,and the proportion of children in kindergarten.It is found that the total fertility rate in China has rebounded during the projection period,but it is still relatively low,at about 1.344 in 2035.The number of children of school age in the projection period will reach its lowest in 2026,and the overall situation is that the number of children of school age first declines and then tends to moderate,in a relatively flat U-shaped pattern.As the number of children enrolled in kindergarten increases,the per capita education expenditure demand will grow year by year.During this period,there will be insufficient demand for full-time teachers,caregivers,and staff in both 2026 and 2035,which will be lower than that in 2022.If the total fertility rate in 2035 is adjusted to 1.4 or 1.2,the former will lead to an increase in the demand for educational resources and the latter will lead to an oversupply of educational resources compared to 2022.Accordingly,suggestions are proposed such as reducing the cost of family education,monitoring future births,and increasing per capita investment in preschool education to ensure the high-quality development of preschool education.