“一带一路”倡议对中国节点城市经济高质量的影响——基于产业结构升级的中介效应检验

The Impact of the“Belt and Road”Initiative on High-Quality Economy of Node Cities in China——The Intermediary Effect Test Based on Industrial Structural Upgrading

“一带一路”倡议是推动经济高质量发展的重要组成部分,同时,也是“双循环”新发展格局下中国产业结构变迁的新动力。基于2003—2019年267个地级市的面板数据,构建经济高质量指标,利用双重差分模型重点分析“一带一路”倡议的发起对中国经济高质量发展的作用和影响,并选取产业结构作为中介指标探讨该倡议对经济高质量发展的影响路径。研究结果表明:“一带一路”倡议能够通过产业结构升级促进中国经济高质量发展;“一带一路”倡议对中国东部经济高质量的影响效果较中部和西部更强,且产业结构升级的中介效应东部较西部地区更显著,中部地区无明显中介效应。

The“Belt and Road”initiative is an important part of promoting high-quality economic development,and it is a new driving force for China’s industrial structure changes under the new development pattern of“dual circulation”.Based on the panel data of 267 prefecture-level cities from 2003 to 2019,this paper constructs economic high-quality indicators,and analyzes the role and impact of the launch of the“Belt and Road”initiative on China’s high-quality economic development by using the double-difference model,and explore the impact path of the initiative on high-quality economic development by selecting the industrial structure as an intermediary indicator.The research results show the following findings:the“Belt and Road”initiative can promote the high-quality development of China’s economy through the upgrading of the industrial structure;the“Belt and Road”initiative has a stronger impact on the high-quality economy in eastern China than in the central and western regions;the mediating eff ect of industrial structure upgrading is more signifi cant in the eastern region than in the western region;there is no obvious mediating effect in the central region.