外部关税冲击、企业家注意力配置与创新发展

External Tariff Shocks,Entrepreneurial Attention Allocation,and Technological Innovation

在外部环境复杂多变的背景下,研究关税变化对中国创新发展的影响机制具有重要意义。本文利用2018年美国对华加征关税这一外部冲击,使用双重差分法探究外部关税冲击对中国企业创新产出和效率的影响,并通过文本分析和Word2vec机器学习技术,测度了企业家注意力配置,借此进一步分析了外部负向关税冲击影响企业创新的传导机制。结果发现:外部负向关税冲击显著降低了中国企业的创新产出和创新效率;企业家注意力内容配置和注意力时间配置是产生以上影响的两个渠道;政府增加R&D补贴、媒体和分析师减少关注、具有抗压能力强特质的企业家,均可以缓解外部关税冲击对企业创新的负向影响。本文结论意味着要为企业家确立良好的政策导向和社会环境,缓解外部关税压力,进而使其在自主创新中更好地发挥企业家精神。

The increasingly complex international environment has put forward more urgent requirements for China to accelerate technological innovation.This paper exploits the external shock of U.S.tariff increase on China in 2018 to explore the impact of external tariff shocks on Chinese firms'innovation output and efficiency using difference in differences method,and measures entrepreneurs'attention allocation through text analysis and Word2vec machine learning techniques,through which we further analyze the transmission mechanism of external tariff shocks affecting firms innovation.The results find that:(1)External tariff shocks can significantly reduce Chinese firms'innovation output and efficiency;(2)Entrepreneurs'attention content allocation and attention time allocation are two important channels to produce the above effects;(3)Government increasing R&D subsidies,the media and analysts reducing excessive attention,and entrepreneurs with high stress resistance can mitigate the negative effects of external tariff shocks on firms'innovation.The conclusion of this paper implies that government need to create a favorable policy orientation and public opinion environment for entrepreneurs to alleviate external tariff pressure and thus enables them to better exercise their entrepreneurial spirit in independent innovation.