基于三层次结构的马克思主义长波理论研究

Marxist Long-Wave Theory Based on a Three-Level Structure

长波理论是一种从资本主义发展的长周期来认识资本主义生产方式新变化和经济发展新走向的分析工具。以技术创新长波论为代表的主流经济学有技术决定论之嫌,其把资本主义的长期波动视为一种以固定不变的内在机制为基础的长周期。马克思主义长波理论则认为长波事实上构成了资本主义发展的历史阶段。但曼德尔的长波理论是“抽象层次+具体层次”的双层结构,缺乏中间层次理论的中介。积累的社会结构理论是“中间层次+具体层次”的双层结构,割裂了抽象层次理论对中间层次理论的制约。构建一个包含“抽象层次+中间层次+具体层次”的三层结构马克思主义长波理论,便可将资本主义必然灭亡的历史命运、资本主义生产方式的阶段性特征与资本主义经济的长期波动现象统一起来,并对资本主义经济发展史作出逻辑一致的解释。

The long-wave theory is an analytical tool for understanding the new changes in capitalist modeof production and the new directions in economic development from the long cycle of capitalist development.The mainstream economics represented by the long-wave theory of technological innovation has the suspicionof technological determinism, which views the long-term fluctuations of capitalism as a long-term cycle basedon a fixed internal mechanism. The Marxist long-wave theory holds that long waves actually constitute thestages of capitalist development. However, Ernest Mandel’s long-wave theory is a double-level structure com⁃posed of an abstract level and a concrete level, lacking an intermediate level theory. The theory of social struc⁃ture of accumulation is a double-level structure composed of an intermediate level and a concrete level, whichseparates the constraints of the abstract level theory on the intermediate level theory. Constructing a threelevelstructure of Marxist long-wave theory that includes abstract, intermediate, and concrete levels can unifythe historical destiny of the inevitable extinction of capitalism, the phased characteristics of capitalist mode ofproduction, and the long-term fluctuation phenomenon of capitalist economy and provide a logically consistentexplanation for the history of capitalist economy.