长江经济带新质生产力发展的时空演化格局及其影响因素

Spatial-temporal Evolution Pattern and Influencing Factors of Development of New Productivity Forces Along the Yangtze River Economic Belt

新质生产力对于推动经济高质量发展和实现中国式现代化具有重要的现实意义。通过构建综合评价指标体系,利用Theil指数、探索性时空数据分析框架和空间计量模型等方法测度并分析长江经济带新质生产力发展的时空演化格局及其影响因素。研究结果表明:(1)2013~2021年,长江经济带新质生产力发展有所提升但仍处于较低水平,2013和2021年新质生产力发展水平均值分别为0.040和0.101;空间分布上呈现“东高西低、北高南低”特征且有明显的区域组团集聚分布态势;高值点主要为上海、苏州、南京、杭州、成都等直辖市和省会城市,低值点主要为广安、巴中、昭通、达州、遂宁等上游地区城市。(2)新质生产力发展在全域和上、中、下游地区均具有显著差异,且该差异呈先减小后增大趋势;地区内部差异由强到弱依次为上游、下游和中游,对全域发展差异的贡献率由大到小依次为下游、中游和上游。(3)新质生产力发展的全域空间自相关(正向)特征明显,关联程度呈先减弱后增强再减弱的演变趋势;整体和局域空间结构均较为稳定,在演化过程中具有很强的空间依赖性,呈现以高协同升高为主的空间整合动态性特征。(4)直接影响效应方面,政府行政能力的提升对城市自身新质生产力发展呈负向作用,其他因素呈正向作用;空间溢出效应方面,经济发展和市场化程度的提升对新质生产力发展具有正向空间溢出效应,其他要素具有负向空间溢出效应。(5)因此在城市建设中,一要因地制宜地制定推动新质生产力发展的政策措施,二要充分发挥地区经济发展、财政结构调整、产业结构升级、制度设计完善、市场化改革和政府职能转变对新质生产力发展的促进作用,三是要积极完善新质生产力发展的区域协同机制,增强中心城市对中小城市的辐射带动作用,推动新质生产力发展的跨域合作和协同参与。

New productivity forces(NPF)are crucial for advancing high-quality economic growth and achieving modernization in the Chinese context.This paper utilized Theil index,exploratory spatial-temporal data analysis framework,and spatial econometric model to assess and examine the spatial-temporal evolution pattern and influencing factors of NPF development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt(YREB)through a comprehensive evaluation index system.The results showed that:(1)The NPF advancement in the YREB increased from 2013 to 2021,however it remained relatively low.The average level of NPF in 2013 was 0.040,while in 2021 it rose to 0.101.The spatial distribution exhibited a pattern of high in the east and low in the west,high in the north and low in the south,indicating a clear regional clustering.The cities with high value points included Shanghai,Suzhou,Nanjing,Hangzhou,Chengdu,and other municipalities that are directly under the Central Governmentthat or are capital cities.The cities with low value points included Guang'an,Bazhong,Zhaotong,Dazhou,Suining,and other upstream cities.(2)There were notable disparities in the NPF progress across the entire region,with variations observed in the upper,middle,and downstream areas.These differences initially decreased and then increased.Within the regions,the disparities ranged from strong to weak in the upstream,downstream,and middle reaches,respectively.The contribution rates ranging from large to small to the overall regional development differences followed the order of downstream,middle reaches,and upper reaches.(3)The global spatial autocorrelation of NPF development was evident,with a correlation degree that fluctuated between weakening and strengthening.Both overall and local spatial structures remained relatively stable,displaying a strong spatial dependence during the evolution process,and indicating a dynamic spatial integration dominated by high cooperative elevation.(4)In terms of direct effects,the improvement of government administrative capacity had negative effects on the urban NPF development,while other factors had positive effects.In terms of spatial spillover effects,economic development and the improvement of marketization degree had positive spatial spillover effects on the NPF,while other factors had negative effects.(5)Thus,in urban construction,it is essential to establish policies and strategies to enhance the NPF growth based on local circumstances.Secondly,it is crucial to leverage regional economic development,financial restructuring,industrial upgrading,system enhancement,market reform,and government function transformation to support the NPF advancement.Lastly,it is necessary to strengthen the regional coordination mechanism,boost the impact of central cities on promoting small and medium-sized cities,and foster collaboration across many sectors to support the growth of the NPF.