洞庭湖区生态承载力与高质量发展的非协调性耦合时空格局

Spatiotemporal Pattern of Non-Coordinated Coupling between Ecological Carrying Capacity and High-quality Development in the Dongting Lake Area

揭示生态承载力与高质量发展的非协调性耦合关系对促进生态安全和人地协调发展具有重要现实意义。基于非协调性耦合作用机理,从生态弹性、资源承载和环境承载3个维度,创新驱动、协调能力、绿色转型、开放水平和共享发展5个维度构建生态承载力与高质量发展评价指标体系,运用非协调性耦合模型、探索性空间数据分析法、标准差椭圆和GM(1,1)模型,分析2004~2022年洞庭湖区生态承载力与高质量发展的非协调性耦合时空格局特征,预测2023~2028年变化趋势。结果表明:(1)2004~2022年非协调性耦合度由0.5323下降至0.3631,预测2028年为0.3092,仍处于拮抗阶段,耦合性与协调性不同步;空间差异明显,基本形成中部地区>外围地区>边缘地区的空间分布格局。(2)非协调性耦合度具有显著的负向全局空间自相关性,预计2028年耦合协调类型仍以拮抗非协调耦合为主,非协调性耦合态势依然严峻,空间集聚类型将出现高—高、高—低和低—高3种。(3)非协调性耦合度空间分布的方向性以东西向为主导,且向洞庭湖西北方向缓慢移动,集聚性及重心位置基本稳定。(4)洞庭湖边缘地区应稳步降低自身非协调性耦合度的同时,发挥带动与辐射作用;中部地区应加强区域合作,发挥水土资源优势,推进生态农业;外围地区应因地制宜,发展特色生态产业。

Revealing relationship of non-coordinated coupling between ecological carrying capacity and high-quality development is of great practical significance for promoting ecological security and human-land coordination.Based on the mechanism of non-coordinated coupling between ecological carrying capacity and high-quality development,we constructed an ecological carrying capacity assessment indicator system from three dimensions of ecological resilience,resource carrying,and environmental carrying.Additionally,we built a high-quality development assessment indicator system from five dimensions of innovation drive,coordination capability,green transformation,openness level,and shared development.The non-coordinated coupling model,exploratory spatial data analysis,standard deviation ellipse,and GM(1,1)model were applied to analyze the spatiotemporal pattern of non-coordinated coupling between ecological carrying capacity and high-quality development in the Dongting Lake area from 2004 to 2022.The trend of the changes from 2023 to 2028 was also predicted.The results showed that:(1)Non-coordinated coupling degree decreased from 0.5323 to 0.3631 in 2004-2022 and was predicted to be 0.3092 in 2028.However,the coupling degree remained relatively high,and coupling and coordination were not synchronous.There existed significant spatial variations,i.e.the central region>peripheral region>edge region.(2)The non-coordinated coupling degree exhibited a significant negative global spatial autocorrelation.It was anticipated that in 2028,the coupling type would still be predominantly characterized by antagonistic non-coordinated coupling.The situation of non-coordinated coupling was expected to remain severe,with three types of spatial agglomeration,i.e.high-high,high-low,and low-high.(3)The directionality of the spatial distribution of non-coordinated coupling was dominated by the east-west direction,with the gravity center moving slowly towards the northwest of Dongting Lake.But the agglomeration and the location of the center of gravity were basically stable.(4)The edge region of Dongting Lake should be given full play to the driving and radiation roles while steadily reducing their own non-coordinated coupling.The central region should strengthen regional cooperation,give full play to the advantages of soil and water resources,and promote the concept of eco-agriculture.The peripheral region shoulddevelop special ecological industries according to the local conditions.