未来10年珠江流域土地利用多情景模拟及碳储量评估

Multi-scenario Simulation of Land Use and Carbon Storage Assessment in the Pearl River Basin in the Next Decade

[目的]分析珠江流域过去20年及未来10年土地利用与碳储量的时空变化,以期为该地区的土地利用格局优化和生态系统固碳管理提供参考依据。[方法]基于2002年、2012年、2022年3期土地利用数据,分析土地利用类型变化,使用PLUS模型模拟2032年自然发展情景、耕地保护情景和生态保护情景下的土地利用格局,利用InVEST模型评估3种情景下生态系统碳储量变化情况。[结果]近20年,珠江流域土地类型发生较大变化,耕地向建设用地的单向转化以及耕地与林地间的双向转化是该地区土地利用变化的主要特点;同期陆地生态系统碳储量整体呈下降趋势,降幅为0.52%;2032年碳储量预测显示,生态保护情景下碳储量明显高于耕地保护情景和自然发展情景,分别高出4.81×10^(6),10.22×10^(6)t。[结论]采取有效的生态保护政策可提高区域碳储量,维系生态系统的健康发展,未来在制定土地利用规划时应考虑经济发展与生态保护的平衡关系,强化流域生态保护和绿色发展理念,增加土地碳存储功能,助力“双碳”目标的实现和区域可持续发展。

[Objective]The temporal and spatial changes of land use and carbon storage in the Pearl River Basin in the past 20 years and the next 10 years were analyzed in order to provide a reference for the optimization of land use pattern and ecosystem carbon sequestration management in the Pearl River Basin.[Methods]Based on the land use data of 2002,2012,and 2022,this paper analyzed the changes of land use types,used the PLUS model to simulate the land use pattern under the natural development scenario,cultivated land protection scenario and ecological protection scenario in 2032,and used the InVEST model to evaluate the changes of ecosystem carbon storage under the three scenarios.[Results]The land types in the Pearl River Basin have changed greatly in the past 20 years,and the one-way conversion of cultivated land to construction land and the two-way conversion between cultivated land and forest land were the main characteristics of land use change in the Pearl River Basin.During the same period,the carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems showed a downward trend as a whole,with a decrease of 0.52%.The carbon storage projection in 2032 shows that the carbon storage under the ecological protection scenario is significantly higher than that under the cultivated land protection scenario and the natural development scenario,which are 4.81×10^(6)and 10.22×10^(6)t higher,respectively.[Conclusion]Therefore,when formulating land use planning in the future,decision-makers should consider the balance between economic development and ecological protection,strengthen the concept of ecological protection and green development in river basins,increase the function of land carbon storage,and help achieve the“double carbon”goal and regional sustainable development.