2009—2022年重庆市某地区法定呼吸道传染病流行特征及基于Joinpoint回归模型的流行趋势

Epidemiological characteristics and trends based on joinpoint regression model of notifiable respiratory infectious diseases in a district in Chongqing City from 2009 to 2022

目的 分析法定呼吸道传染病的流行特征及趋势,为呼吸道传染病的防治和应对提供科学依据。方法 对2009—2022年重庆市某地区法定呼吸道传染病监测报告资料进行描述分析,使用Joinpoint软件分析发病率变化趋势。结果2009—2022年重庆市某地区法定呼吸道传染病累计报告14 545例,年均发病率175.53/10万,其中肺结核5 507例、水痘4 309例、流行性感冒2 638例和流行性腮腺炎1 466例,报告发病数位居前4。法定呼吸道传染病总体发病率男性高于女性(χ^(2)=28.307,P<0.01),好发于5~<35岁人群中,占60.70%,发病高峰出现在11—12月和5—7月。该地区2009—2022年法定呼吸道传染病发病率总体变化趋势平稳,年度变化百分比(annual percent change,APC)=平均年度变化百分比(average annual percent change,AAPC)=1.6(P>0.05),肺结核(APC=AAPC=-3.2,P<0.01)、流行性腮腺炎(APC=AAPC=-10.4,P<0.05),发病率呈下降趋势,水痘发病率在2009—2018年为上升趋势(APC=19.1,P<0.01)、2018—2022年趋势变化差异无统计学意义(APC=-15.9,P>0.01),流行性感冒发病率在2009—2011年趋势变化差异无统计学意义(APC=-76.7,P>0.05)、2011—2022年为上升趋势(APC=26.1,P<0.01)。结论 应根据每种呼吸道传染病的流性特征采取针对性防控措施,尤其需要重视疫苗在呼吸道传染病预防和控制中的重要作用。

Objective To analyze the epidemic characteristics and trends of notifiable respiratory infectious diseases and to provide scientific basis for the prevention and control and response of respiratory infectious diseases.Methods A descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the surveillance data of notifiable respiratory infectious diseases in a certain district in Chongqing City from 2009 to 2022,and used Joinpoint Regression Model to analyze the change trend of incidence rate.Results The incidence rate of notifiable respiratory infectious diseases in a certain district in Chongqing City from 2009 to 2022 was 175.53/100 000with the total of 14 545 cases.Tuberculosis(n=5 507),varicella(n=4 309),influenza(n=2 638) and mump(n=1 466) had the most reported cases of all.The incidence rate was higher in males than in females(χ^(2)=28.307,P<0.01).Most of the case were aged between 5 and 35 which accounted for 60.70% of the total notifiable respiratory infectious diseases cases.The peak incidence occurred from November to December,and there was another small peak from May to July.The overall change trend of the incidence rate of notifiable respiratory infectious diseases in this district in Chongqing City from 2009 to 2022 was stable,with annual percent change(APC)=average annual percent change(AAPC)=1.6(P>0.05).The incidence rate of tuberculosis(APC=AAPC =-3.2,P <0.01) and mumps(APC=AAPC=-10.4,P<0.05) showed a downward trend.The incidence rate of varicella showed an upward trend from 2009 to 2018(APC=19.1,P<0.01) and then there was no statistically significant difference in the trend change from 2018 to 2022(APC=-15.9,P>0.05).There was no statistically significant difference in the trend change of influenzas incidence rate from 2009 to 2011(APC=-76.7,P>0.05),and it was an upward trend from 2011 to 2022(APC=26.1,P<0.01).Conclusion Different prevention and control measures should be taken according to the different epidemiological characteristics of respiratory infectious diseases,and particular emphasis on the important role of vaccines in the prevention and control of respiratory infectious diseases.