基于决策树C5.0的水库防洪调度研究

Investigation into reservoir flood control operations utilizing Decision Tree C5.0

水库是一种重要的防洪工程措施,科学的水库防洪调度方式是实现水库设计效益的关键。鉴于常规调度和优化调度存在的不足,以山东省跋山水库为研究对象,提出并评估了一种利用决策树C5.0算法制定水库防洪调度规则的新方法。首先,在根据实测洪水数据构建跋山水库新安江模型的基础上,采用暴雨资料进行洪水模拟;然后,以最大削峰准则为目标进行模拟洪水的优化调度;最后,由跋山水库优化调度方案生成洪水调度数据集,由决策树C5.0算法提取水库调度规则决策树,据此对4场实测洪水进行调度。结果表明:由调度规则决策树制定的调度方案可行,且比实测调度方案更优。以决策树算法制定水库调度规则的过程,可为水库实时防洪调度提供决策支持。

Reservoirs,vital for flood control,require a scientifically sound operational approach to maximize design benefits,ensuring significant flood control advantages and fostering sustainable socio-economic development.Addressing drawbacks in conventional and optimal operations,this study proposes a novel reservoir flood control methodology.The Decision Tree C5.0 algorithm is employed,using Bashan Reservoir as a case study.Initially,the Xinanjiang model for Bashan Reservoir is established using measured flood data,generating simulated floods through rainstorm data.Subsequently,these simulated floods undergo optimal dispatching based on the maximum peak cutting criterion.The resulting flood operation dataset is created from optimal operation schemes,and the Decision Tree C5.0 algorithm extracts the reservoir operation rules decision tree.This decision tree is applied to dispatch four measured floods.Results indicate the feasibility and superiority of operation schemes derived from the decision tree compared to measured schemes.The study introduces the steps and processes of formulating reservoir operation rules using the Decision Tree algorithm in data mining technology,offering decision support for real-time reservoir flood control operations.