新人口转变论:人口负增长下对传统人口转变理论的发展

New Demographic Transition Theory:The Negative Population Growth and the Development on the Traditional Theory of Demographic Transition

基于当前世界人口发展趋势,需要进一步发展和完善传统人口转变理论,并提出新人口转变理论。完整的人口转变应该包含原始人口发展、传统人口发展、现代人口发展、后现代人口发展四个阶段。“较低生育率、较高死亡率、负自然增长率”的人口转变过度是现代人口发展阶段中最重要的特征,并将在未来较长一段时期内主导人类发展进程。人口爆发式增长与人口持续负增长都是人口转变客观规律下的结果,但未来需要高度重视人口负增长的社会经济后果。

Based on current trend of world population,the traditional population transition theory needs to be further developed,and a new population transition theory is proposed.The complete population transition should include primitive population development,traditional population development,modern population development and post-modern population development.The population transition of“low fertility rate,high mortality rate and negative natural growth rate”is the most important feature in the modern population development stage,and will dominate the human development process for a long period of time.Both the explosive growth of population and the continuous negative growth of population are the results of the objective law of population transition,but the social and economic consequences of negative population growth should be paid more attention to in the future.