基于类比分析法的光伏电站发电能力评估模型研究

RESEARCH ON POWER GENERATION CAPACITY EVALUATION MODEL OF PV POWER STATION BASED ON ANALOGY ANALYSIS METHOD

在光伏电站建设前期做可行性评估的过程中,需要对拟建光伏电站的发电量进行理论上的预测,以此来测算项目的投资收益率,进而评估项目是否值得投资建设。光伏电站发电能力评估的准确性受限于气象数据的准确性及光伏电站系统效率(PR)评估的准确性。由于环境复杂性高、实际测量难度大等原因,导致无法获得拟建光伏电站真实的气象数据及准确的PR。将拟建光伏电站周边的光伏电站作为参考,引入参考光伏电站的历史发电数据,结合参考光伏电站与拟建光伏电站的太阳辐射量差异、PR差异,提出了一种基于类比分析法的光伏电站发电能力评估模型。通过建立评估模型,解耦气象因素偏差对光伏电站PR的影响,分析各因素导致的评估模型的偏差范围,并采用3组光伏电站对照组的发电数据对评估模型的准确性进行了验证。研究结果表明:气象因素偏差对光伏电站PR的最大影响为1.5972%。采用该评估模型测算得到的3组光伏电站对照组的年等效利用小时数评估偏差皆控制在3.00%以内,平均偏差为1.21%,远低于采用PVsyst软件测算得到的年等效利用小时数的平均偏差。表明该评估模型具有良好地准确度,可作为光伏电站建设时评估其发电量的实用且有效的方法。

In the process of feasibility evaluation in the early stage of PV power station construction,it is necessary to theoretically predict the power generation capacity of the proposed PV power station,in order to calculate the investment return rate of the project and evaluate whether the project is worth investing in for construction.The accuracy of power generation capacity evaluation of PV power stations is limited by the accuracy of meteorological data and the evaluation accuracy of performance ratio(PR)of PV power station.Due to the high complexity of the environment and the difficulty of actual measurement,it is impossible to obtain true meteorological data and accurate PR value of the proposed PV power station.This paper takes the surrounding PV power stations of the proposed PV power station as a reference,introduces the historical power generation data of the reference PV power station,and combines the solar radiation difference and PR difference between the reference PV power station and the proposed PV power station to propose a power generation capacity evaluation model of PV power station based on analogical analysis method.By establishing an evaluation model to decouple the impact of meteorological data deviation on the PR of PV power stations,the deviation range of the evaluation model caused by each factor is analyzed,and the accuracy of the evaluation model is verified using power generation data of three sets of PV power stations control groups.The research results show that the maximum impact of meteorological factor deviation on the PR of PV power stations is 1.5972%.The evaluation deviation of the annual equivalent utilization hours of the three sets of PV power station control groups calculated using this evaluation model is controlled within 3.00%,with an average deviation of 1.21%,which is much lower than the average deviation of the annual equivalent utilization hours calculated by PVsyst software.This indicates that the evaluation model has good accuracy and can be used as a practical and effective method for evaluating the power generation capacity of PV power stations during construction.