考虑分时电价与光伏出力关系的分布式光伏投资决策研究

The Joint Impact of Time-of-use Pricing and Power Output on Solar Photovoltaic Investment for Manufacturing Firm

投资分布式光伏是企业绿色电力消费的一种重要途径,但其投资决策受电价政策与光伏出力情况的影响。本文构建企业分布式光伏投资决策优化模型,引入协方差捕捉分时电价与光伏出力之间的协同或互补关系,分析其对企业最优投资决策的影响。研究发现:分时电价与光伏出力之间的协同程度越高或互补程度越低,越有利于促进企业投资分布式光伏;当分时电价与光伏出力之间存在协同关系时,提高电价可以增强这种协同程度,并共同促进企业投资分布式光伏;当分时电价与光伏出力之间存在互补关系时,调整电价对企业投资分布式光伏的影响是双面的。建议分时电价中波峰、波谷、波平区间的设置应考虑与光伏出力的协同性,确保政策对分布式光伏精准发力。

Distributed solar photovoltaic(PV)investment has been a promising choice for manufacturing firms to realize its energy consumption transition,while the interplay between time-of-use(TOU)electricity pricing scheme and PV power output post uncertainties to the firm’s generation value.An optimal solar PV investment capacity is determined by developing an electricity cost minimization model for a manufacturing firm and study⁃ing the synergy or complementary effect between TOU electricity pricing and power output on firm’s solar PV investment.It is found that a higher synergy will lead to a greater firm’s solar PV investment.While the PV power output exhibits a synergy with TOU electricity pricing,the synergy increases in the level of TOU electricity pricing,which will both incentive firm’s solar PV investment.In contrast,the impact of increasing or decreasing the level of TOU electricity pricing on firm’s solar PV investment is two-sided,including positive and negative effects.Our results suggest that the policy maker can take advantage of the fluctuations in TOU electricity pricing and PV power output to incentive distributed solar PV investment.