重大突发公共卫生事件中社会群体行为演化的计算实验:以新冠疫情为例

Computational Experiment on the Evolution of Social Group Behavior in Major Public Health Emergencies:A Case Study of COVID-19 Epidemic

科学认识重大突发公共卫生事件中的社会群体行为及其演化,是当前我国全面提高政府社会治理能力的关键途径。本文以新冠疫情为例,在刻画不同社会群体的状态、行为及演化规则基础上,构建了群体行为演化的元胞自动机模型并据此进行了计算实验。结果表明:新冠病毒传播中,初始感染率、传染率和舆情对社会群体行为的演化存在较为显著的影响,而潜伏期的影响并不显著;科学降低初始感染率和传染率,有效进行社会舆情治理,以促使社会个体采取正行为并引导社会群体行为向正行为演化,能有效降低新冠病毒的感染率,反之反是。因此,科学引导社会群体行为并强化政府的社会治理能力,是当前有效控制新冠疫情扩散的重要途径。

Scientific understanding of social group behavior and its evolution in major public health emergencies is the key way to improve the government's social governance ability.Firstly,a cellular automata(CA)model for the evolution of group behavior is constructed by describing the state,behaviors and evolution rules of differ⁃ent groups under the COVID-19 epidemic.Secondly,the evolution of group behavior under different scenarios is simulated by using the computational experimental method.Finally,according to the simulation results,the corresponding social governance countermeasures are put forward.The results indicated that:In view of the scientific social governance of the evolution of group behavior in the transmission of COVID-19,the spread of the epidemic can be effectively controlled.The main factors affecting the evolution of group behavior include initial infection rate,infection rate,incubation period and public opinion.Among them,the initial infection rate,infection rate and public opinion have a significant impact on the evolution of group behavior,while the effect of incubation period on the evolution of group behavior is not significant.Reducing the initial infection rate and infection rate can directly reduce the number of infected people,encourage individuals to take positive behavior,and guide the evolution of group behavior to positive behavior.If the management of public opinion is improper and most individuals take zero or negative behaviors,negative group behaviors will emerge in the social system,and almost all the society will be infected,which will increase the difficulty of social governance,and vice versa.Therefore,scientifically guiding the behavior of social groups and strengthening the social governance capacity of the government are important ways to effectively control the spread of COVID-19.