双碳目标下电能替代宏观能效综合评价方法

Comprehensive evaluation method of macro energy efficiency of electric energy substitution under the dual-carbon goal

电能替代是实现“碳达峰碳中和”战略目标的重要技术路径之一,对电能替代能效进行分析评价是检验电能替代技术应用成效的核心手段。基于能量分析法对多种电能替代设备或系统的能量转换利用情况进行分析,筛选通用可比的能效指标以构建宏观能效评价指标体系;以梯形模糊德尔菲法与熵权法的主客观组合赋权法结合优劣解距离法构建综合评价模型,建立适用于多种电能替代技术的宏观能效评价与比较方法,实现能效评价从微观到宏观的推广;通过算例验证了该方法的有效性和合理性,为综合评价电能替代宏观能效水平提供技术支撑,有利于电能替代政策有效制定和深化实施,促进双碳目标的实现。

Electric energy substitution is one of the important technical paths to achieve the targets of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.Analyzing and evaluating the energy efficiency of electric energy substitution is the core means to test the application effect of electric energy substitution technology.Based on the energy analysis method,the energy conversion and utilization of various electric energy substitution equipment or systems are analyzed,and the universal and comparable energy efficiency indexes are selected to construct the macro energy efficiency evaluation index system.In addition,based on Trapezoidal Fuzzy Delphi-Entropy weight method and TOPSIS,the comprehensive macro energy efficiency evaluation method is built.The method realizes the promotion of energy efficiency evaluation from micro to macro.The effectiveness and rationality of this method are verified by a case,which provides technical support for comprehensive evaluation of the macro energy efficiency level of electric energy substitution.It is also conducive to the effective formulation and deepening implementation of electric energy substitution policy,and helpful to achieve progress toward dual-carbon goal.