中国与“一带一路”倡议沿线国家能源贸易格局演变与影响因素研究

Study on the Evolution of Energy Trade Patterns and Influencing Factors between China and“Belt and Road”Countries

本文以2012年、2015年、2018年、2022年“一带一路”倡议沿线国家的能源贸易数据构建能源贸易网络,揭示该网络的格局演变规律。研究发现:1)网络的发育程度正在逐渐提高,但其中仍存在部分边缘国家。2)在“一带一路”倡议沿线国家能源贸易网络中,中国是最大的能源进口国,俄罗斯是最大的能源出口国。3)在“一带一路”倡议沿线国家的总能源贸易网络中,中国位于净受益板块。进一步,本文选取2012~2022年“一带一路”倡议沿线国家的相关数据,利用贸易引力模型进行分析探究该网络能源贸易的影响因素。研究发现经济发展水平、工业化率、共同边界、人口规模、显著正相关,地理距离显著负相关。最后为中国能源贸易长远发展提出建议。

Based on the energy trade data of countries along the Belt and Road in 2012,2015,2018 and 2022,this paper constructs an energy trade network and reveals the pattern evolution of the network.The results show that:1)The development degree of the network is gradually improving,but there are still some marginal countries.2)In the energy trade network of countries along the“Belt and Road”,China is the largest energy importer,and Russia is the largest energy exporter.3)In the total energy trade network of countries along the“Belt and Road”,China is in the net beneficiary sector.Furthermore,this paper selects the relevant data of countries along the“Belt and Road”from 2012 to 2022,and uses the trade gravity model to analyze and explore the influencing factors of energy trade in the network.The results show that there is a significant positive correlation between economic development level,industrialization rate,common border,population size,and a significant negative correlation between geographical distance.Finally,some suggestions are put forward for the long-term development of China’s energy trade.