基于修正的SEIRD传染病动力学模型的应急物资需求预测

The Demand Prediction of Emergency Materials Based on the Modified SEIRD Infectious Disease Dynamics Model

为准确预测应急物资需求,减轻突发公共卫生事件所带来的负面影响,本文对突发公共卫生事件下需求的不确定性做出了科学化的处理。考虑到应急物资需求预测的复杂性,首先通过分析疫情发展趋势对传统传染病模型进行适当修正,使其更加贴合疫情的传播和扩散情况,接着采用修正的SEIRD传染病动力学模型对感染区域内各类人群的数量进行预测,最后根据预测结果构建应急物资动态需求预测模型,以精准预测突发公共卫生事件下应急物资需求变化规律。

In order to accurately predict the demand for emergency materials and mitigate the negative impact of public health emergencies,this paper deals with the uncertainty of demand under public health emergencies.Considering the complexity of forecasting the demand for emergency mate rials,firstly,the traditional epidemic model is modified by analyzing the trend of the epidemic situation to make it more suitable for the epidemic situation.Then,we use the modified SEIRD epidemic dynamics model to forecast the population number in the infected area.Finally,according to the forecast results,we construct the dynamic demand forecasting model of emergency materials,to accurately predict the change rule of the demand for emergency materials under public health emergencies.