2013-2022年山东省胶东地区发热伴血小板减少综合征发病与气象相关因素分析

Analysis on relationship between severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome and meteorological factors in Jiaodong area,Shandong,2013−2022

目的探究气象因素对山东省胶东地区发热伴血小板减少综合征(SFTS)发病的影响,为SFTS科学防控提供参考。方法采用Quasi-Possion回归分析青岛、烟台、威海地区SFTS的发病与气象因素的关系,选择差异具有统计学意义的气象因素纳入分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM),构建各城市气象因素与SFTS发病的非线性暴露–反应关系,相对危险度(RR)及95%置信区间(CI)为衡量指标。同时,将估计参数纳入多元Meta模型,得到气象因素对SFTS发病的综合效应。结果胶东地区SFTS发病存在明显的季节性和周期性,多数在6—9月发病;周平均温度高于13.65℃时,SFTS发病人数增多(RR=11.34,95%CI:8.37~15.70);周平均相对湿度高于66.83%时,SFTS发病人数增多(RR=1.19,95%CI:1.02~1.39);周平均气压高于1011.37 hPa时,SFTS发病人数降低(RR=0.56,95%CI:0.36~0.84);周平均风速高于3.27 m/s时,SFTS发病人数降低(RR=0.66,95%CI:0.58~0.75);温度与SFTS存在非线性的累积和滞后效应,低温(−0.88℃和3.92℃)降低发病风险,高温(22.00℃和26.35℃)增加发病风险。结论温度、相对湿度、气压、风速可能是胶东地区SFTS发病的影响因素,温度对SFTS发病存在非线性的滞后效应。

Objective To study the influence of meteorological factors on the incidence of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome(SFTS)in Jiaodong area,Shandong province,and provide reference for the effective prevention and control of SFTS.Methods Quasi-Possion regression was used to analyze the relationship between the incidence of SFTS and meteorological factors in Qingdao,Yantai and Weihai,and meteorological factors with significant difference were selected to be included in the distributed lag non-linear models(DLNM),and a nonlinear exposure-response relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of SFTS was established for Qingdao,Yantai and Weihai,respectively.The relative risk(RR)and 95%confidence interval(CI)were used as indicators.Meanwhile,the estimated parameters were incorporated into the multivariate meta-model to obtain the comprehensive effects of meteorological factors on SFTS.Results Obvious seasonality and cyclicity of SFTS incidence in Jiaodong were observed.Most of the cases occurred from June to September.When the weekly average temperature was higher than 13.65℃,the incidence of SFTS increased(RR=11.34,95%CI:8.37–15.70).When the weekly average relative humidity was higher than 66.83%,the incidence of SFTS increased(RR=1.19,95%CI:1.02–1.39).When the average air pressure was above 1011.37hPa,the incidence of SFTS decreased(RR=0.56,95%CI:0.36–0.84).When the average weekly wind speed was above 3.27 m/s,the incidence of SFTS decreased(RR=0.66,95%CI:0.58–0.75).There were nonlinear cumulative and lag effects of temperature on the incidence of SFTS:low temperature(−0.88℃and 3.92℃)reduced the risk for SFTS,and high temperature(22.00℃and 26.35℃)increased the risk for SFTS.Conclusion In Jiaodong,temperature,relative humidity,air pressure and wind speed were possible factors influencing the incidence of SFTS,and temperature had non-linear lag effect on the incidence of SFTS.