庭院非法种植罂粟行为的时空特征及影响因素分析

Research on the Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Illegal Cultivation of Opium Poppy in Courtyards

我国乡村地区存在一定规模的庭院非法种植行为,给社会经济发展带来巨大威胁。当前研究多集中于识别铲除、替代种植以及大区域风险评估,缺乏对庭院非法种植罂粟分布特征与成因机制的深入分析。以河南省为研究区,利用地理统计和空间分析方法,提出了基于多时序开源案件数据的庭院非法种植群体特征、时空规律和影响因素分析的技术思路。结果表明,河南省非法种植罂粟行为具有明显的人口学和犯罪学特征,2010—2021年期间案情先加剧后减缓且呈现明显的季节性特征,空间上表现为“东密西疏”的聚集性分布格局,风险人群数量、历史种植习惯和经济发展状况是驱动非法种植的重要影响因素。首次揭示了庭院非法种植的显著性时空分布模式和多维度乡村犯罪驱动因素,推动了犯罪地理学在毒品治理领域的应用。研究结果可以为执法部门制定针对性的打击预防策略提供科学依据,切实提高我国乡村毒品治理工作水平和非法种植打击效果。

There is a certain scale of illegal cultivation in courtyards of rural areas across our country,which brings great threat to social and economic development.Current studies mainly focus on the identi⁃fication of eradication,substitution of cultivation and risk assessment in large areas,and lack in⁃depth a⁃nalysis of the distribution characteristics and origin mechanisms of illegal cultivation of opium poppy in courtyards.Taking Henan Province as the research area,a technical approach is proposed for analyzing the group characteristics,spatiotemporal rules,and influencing factors of illegal cultivation in courtyards based on multi⁃temporal open⁃source case data by using geostatistical and spatial analysis methods.The results show that the illegal cultivation of opium poppy in courtyards in Henan Province has obvious demo⁃graphic and criminological characteristics.During the period from 2010 to 2021,the case has shown a trend of initially intensifying and subsequently easing with obvious seasonal characteristics.The spatial distribution shows a clustering pattern of“dense in the east and sparse in the west”.The number of high⁃risk populations,historical planting habits,and economic development status are important influencing factors driving illegal cultivation.The significant spatiotemporal distribution pattern and multi⁃dimensional driving factors of illegal cultivation in courtyards are revealed for the first time,promoting the application of criminal geography in the field of drug governance.The research results can provide scientific basis for law enforcement agencies to develop targeted crackdown and prevention strategies,thereby effectively im⁃proving the level of drug control in rural areas of China and the effectiveness of combating illegal cultiva⁃tion.