职工养老保险个人账户超支、基金压力与财政负担:2024~2050——基于代表性个体和基金整体的精算分析

Individual Account Deficit,Fund Pressure and Fiscal Burden of the Basic Pension for Urban Employees:2024-2050--Based on representative individuals and the pension funds

本文通过构建代表性个体的个人账户超支测算模型和个人账户基金整体超支测算模型,估计了1998~2050年各类代表性个体的个人账户超支情况,预测出2024~2050年个人账户基金整体超支额的大小及给付压力。结果显示:高龄老人的个人账户存在巨大的超支额,个人账户基金整体超支额以13.4%的年均增幅急速上涨,到2050年规模将高达17218亿元,需要由当年统筹基金收入的15.68%、职工养老保险基金收入的10.46%或财政收入的2.66%填补;渐进式上调新退休人员的计发月数是缓解个人账户超支的最有力措施,在2042年及之后能够减轻5成以上的超支压力,而提高个人账户投资收益率和下调养老金调整比例仅能够在一定程度上缓解超支,无法使超支问题限制在可控水平。据此建议:第一,建立个人账户制度的参量调整办法,让计发月数与退休人口预期余命相协调,取消城镇职工基本养老金的待遇捆绑调整,完善城镇职工基本养老金正常调整机制,明确记账利率的锚定指标和计算公式;第二,从增加内源性积累和筹划外源性融资两方面着手,为可预想的超支情况提前做好充分的资金准备;第三,重视职工养老保险混账管理模式带来的不可持续性问题,为个人账户改革探索可行方案。

By constructing individual account deficit calculation models for representative individuals and the overall deficit of the pension funds,we estimates the individual account deficit of different representative groups in 1998-2050,and the overall deficits and payout pressure of the pension funds in 2024-2050.The results show that:the individual accounts of the elderly face huge deficits.The overall deficit of the pension funds rises rapidly by 13.4%every year,and will reach 1721.8 billion yuan by 2050.This immense deficit needs to be filled by 15.68%of the social pooling account income,10.46%of the employee pension fund income or 2.66%of the fiscal revenue of 2050.The most effective measure is to gradually increase the calculation months for new retirees,which can reduce the deficit by more than 50%in 2042 and beyond,while reducing the book-keeping interest rate and pension adjustment ratio can only alleviate the deficit to a certain extent,it is unable to maintain the deficit within a controllable level.Based on this,we suggests that:first,establish a parameter adjustment mechanism for the individual account,which makes the divisor factor consistent with the life expectancy of the urban employees,abolish the bound adjustment of the pension benefits and refine the normal pension adjustment mechanism,clarify the anchor indicators and calculation formulas of the interest rate;second,take measures to increase internal accumulation and external funding,so as to prepare sufficient funds in advance for foreseeable deficit situations;third,pay attention to the unsustainable problem caused by the mixed account management mode in the basic pension for urban employees,and explore feasible reform measures for it.