县域农业农村现代化与城乡融合的时空耦合及障碍因子——以皖北地区为例

The Spatiotemporal Coupling and Hindering Factors of County-level Agricultural and Rural Modernization and Urban-rural Integration:A Case Study of Northern Anhui

县域城乡融合发展能有效推动中国式现代化和共同富裕的建设。以皖北地区18个县(县级市)为例,通过熵权TOPSIS法、耦合协调模型,评价和分析各县域2001—2021年农业农村现代化和城乡融合协调发展的时空特征,并通过障碍度模型诊断影响其发展的障碍因子。结果表明:(1)皖北地区在农业农村现代化和城乡融合方面均取得了显著的进展,各县域展现出不同的发展模式和特点。农业农村现代化水平呈现上升趋势,城乡融合水平则呈现先下降、后上升的趋势。(2)耦合协调度随时间呈上升趋势,但在空间上存在阶段性和差异性。早期以初步协调为主,末期较高协调度的县域呈“十”字分布。耦合协调度标准椭圆呈“东北—西南”向分布,重心向“西南”移动,西南部县域发展占优。(3)皖北地区农业农村现代化与城乡融合协调发展主要障碍因素在于农业生态、城乡社会及城乡生态融合。最后,基于研究结论和诊断结果,进一步提出优化皖北地区县域农业农村现代化与城乡融合协调发展的对策和建议。

The integrated development of urban and rural areas in counties can effectively promote the construction of Chinese-style modernisation and common wealth.Taking 18 counties and countylevel cities in northern Anhui as examples,this paper evaluated and analysed the spatial and temporal characteristics of the coordinated development of agricultural and rural modernization and urban-rural integration in each county from 2001 to 2021 through the entropy-weighted TOPSIS method and the coupled coordination model,and diagnosed the obstacle factors affecting their development through the obstacle degree model.The results showed that,(1)Northern Anhui region had made remarkable progress in both agricultural and rural modernisation and urban-rural integration,and the counties showed different development patterns and characteristics.The level of agricultural and rural modernisation showed an upward trend,while the level of urban-rural integration and development showed a downward and then upward trend.(2)The degree of coupled coordination showed an upward trend over time,but there were stages and differences in space.The early stage was dominated by preliminary coordination,and the counties with higher degree of coordination at the end of the period were distributed in the shape of“十”.The standard ellipse of coupling coordination degree was distributed in the direction of“Northeast-Southwest”,with the centre of gravity moving to the“Southwest”,and the development of southwestern counties was superior.(3)The main obstacles to the coordinated development of agricultural and rural modernisation and urban-rural integration in northern Anhui lay in agro-ecological,urban-rural social and urban-rural ecological integration.Finally,based on the research conclusions and diagnostic results,the countermeasures and suggestions for optimising the coordinated development of agricultural and rural modernization and urban-rural integration in the counties of northern Anhui Province were further proposed.