我国农业碳排放强度测算及空间溢出效应分析

Measurement of China’ s Agricultural Carbon EmissionIntensity and Analysis of Spatial Spillover Effects

本文采用区域经济学的视角分析农业碳排放强度的基本现状与空间溢出效应,为农业减排固碳宏观决策提供一定的参考。文章基于2012—2021年我国30个省(区、市)的面板数据首先测算出各个省份的农业碳排放强度,进而运用空间杜宾模型探索中国农业碳排放强度对相邻地区的空间溢出效应。我国农业碳排放强度从2012年的0.345 t/万元下降至2021年的0.231 t/万元,下降了33.01%。我国农业碳排放强度受农业经济发展水平、城镇化和农业机械化水平因素的共同影响。本地区农业碳排放强度增加1%,将导致相邻地区农业碳排放强度减少0.38%。我国农业碳排放强度呈下降态势但省际差异较大,我国农业碳排放强度受农业经济发展水平的正向促进作用,而城镇化水平和农业机械化水平会对农业碳排放强度产生负向抑制作用。

This paper analyzed the basic status and spatial spillover effects of agricultural carbon emission intensity from the perspective of regional economics,so as to provide a certain reference for macro decision-making on agricultural carbon emission reduction and carbon sequestration.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2012 to 2021,this paper first calculated the agricultural carbon emission intensity of each province,and then used the spatial Durbin model to explore the spatial spillover effect of China’s agricultural carbon emission intensity on adjacent regions.As a result,China’s agricultural carbon emission intensity decreased from 0.345 in 2012 to 0.231 in 2021,a decrease of 33.01%.The analysis of influencing factors showed that,China’s agricultural carbon emission intensity was affected by the level of agricultural economic development,urbanization and agricultural mechanization.The spatial Doberman results showed that,a 1%increase in agricultural carbon emission intensity in this region would lead to a 0.38%reduction in agricultural carbon emission intensity in adjacent areas.China’s agricultural carbon emission intensity was generally decreasing,and the inter-provincial differences of agricultural carbon emission intensity were obvious.There was a significant spatial correlation between China’s agricultural carbon emission intensity,which would be positively promoted by the level of agricultural economic development,while the level of urbanization and agricultural mechanization would have a negative inhibition effect on agricultural carbon emission intensity.