1999—2022年安徽省耕地安全评价

The Evaluation of Farmland Security in AnhuiProvince from 1999 to 2022

耕地安全评价对于确保区域粮食安全具有重要意义。利用1999年至2022年的相关数据,采用加权TOPSIS法、障碍因子诊断模型和空间自相关法,从时间和空间角度对安徽省的耕地安全进行评价。结果表明:全省耕地安全指数整体呈上升态势,从临界安全逐渐过渡到相对安全状态。其中,数量安全缓慢下降,质量安全快速增长,生态安全波动下降,投入安全平稳增长。障碍度方面,生态安全障碍和投入安全障碍是主要问题。农业从业人口、每公顷农药使用量、人均耕地面积、氮肥比重和农业机械总动力是排位靠前的耕地安全障碍指标。市域耕地安全分为较不安全、临界安全和相对安全三种状态。呈现出东北-西南走向的三条带状区域分布格局。各市的耕地安全水平展现了一定的高值和低值集聚特征。为提升全省的耕地安全水平,应采取转变耕地利用方式、强化生态治理和优化农业生产布局等措施。

The assessment of farmland safety is of great significance for ensuring regional food security.Using relevant data from 1999 to 2022,the weighted TOPSIS method,the obstacle factor diagnostic model,and spatial autocorrelation were used to evaluate the farmland safety in Anhui Province from the perspective of time and space.The results showed that,the overall farmland safety index in the province was on the rise,transitioning from critically safe to relatively safe.Specifically,the quantity safety showed a slow decline,while the quality safety grew rapidly,ecological safety fluctuated downward,and input safety steadily increased.In terms of obstacles,ecological safety and input safety were the main issues.The indicators ranked high in farmland safety obstacles include agricultural labor force,pesticide use per hectare,per capita arable land area,proportion of nitrogen fertilizer,and total agricultural machinery power.The farmland safety in the urban areas could be categorized into three states:relatively unsafe,critical safety,and relatively safe,presenting a distribution pattern of three belt-shaped regions running from northeast to southwest. The farmland safetylevels in each city exhibited certain characteristics of high and low value aggregation. In order to improvethe overall farmland safety level in the province, measures such as transforming farmland use,strengthening ecological governance, and optimizing agricultural production layout should be taken.