宏观经济不确定性对肉羊产业链价格的影响

Impact of economic policy uncertainty on price of mutton sheep industry chain

宏观经济不确定性是影响肉羊产业链价格的重要因素之一。以2011年6月—2022年6月肉羊产业链价格的月度数据为研究样本,利用VAR模型,通过脉冲响应函数和方差分解检验宏观经济不确定性对肉羊产业链价格的影响效应。结果表明,宏观经济不确定性有助于稳定肉羊产业链价格。宏观经济不确定性对肉羊产业链价格冲击的响应期为2年,且在第2年宏观经济不确定性对肉羊产业链价格的贡献率约为6.924 5%。因此,提出健全肉羊市场流通机制、建立肉羊产业链价格监控体系、推进适度规模化肉羊养殖的对策建议,以期推动肉羊产业可持续发展。

Macroeconomic uncertainty is one of the important factors affecting the price of the mutton sheep industry chain.Using monthly data on the price of the mutton sheep industry chain from June 2011 to June 2022 as the research sample,the VAR model is used to test the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on the price of the mutton sheep industry chain through impulse response function and variance decomposition.The results indicate that macroeconomic uncertainty helps stabilize the prices of the mutton sheep industry chain.The response period of macroeconomic uncertainty to the price impact of the mutton sheep industry chain is two years,and the contribution rate of macroeconomic uncertainty to the mutton sheep industry chain price in the second year is about 6.9245%.Based on this,countermeasures and suggestions are proposed to improve the circulation mechanism of the mutton sheep market,establish a price monitoring system for the mutton sheep industry chain,and promote moderate scale mutton sheep breeding,in order to promote the sustainable development of the mutton sheep industry.