进口竞争还是产业转移:对“中国综合征”的再探讨

Import Competition or Industrial Transfer:Revisit“China Syndrome”

近年来,西方学术界流传“中国综合征”的观点,即中国对美出口对美国劳动力市场造成全面且显著的负面影响。文章发现已有研究忽视美国对华直接投资,使其工具变量不再满足排他性要求,导致估计结果存在严重偏误。为此,文章引入美国对华直接投资变量,并采用Bartik方法构造工具变量,同时检验贸易与投资对美国劳动力市场的影响。研究发现:在中国对美出口与美国对华直接投资的双重作用下,美国劳动人口会发生跨区流动,这与“中国综合征”研究框架的核心假设矛盾,动摇了其结论的基础;即使接受其研究框架,纳入美国对华直接投资变量后,中国对美出口在美国劳动力市场的整体层面并未产生全面显著的负面影响,反而能够显著提升制造业劳动者的工资水平;尽管美国对华直接投资存在显著负面冲击,但文章测算其对美国制造业就业下降的总量影响仅为2.1%。考虑到美国对华直接投资只占美国对外直接投资总量的极小部分,不应将美国劳动力市场出现的问题归咎于中国。

In recent years,the concept of“China Syndrome”has gained traction within the Western academic circle,positing that China's exports to the United States exert a comprehensive and significant negative impact on the labor market of the United States.This paper contends that the previous studies have overlooked direct investment of the United States in China,resulting in the failure of instrumental variables to meet exclusivity requirements and the consequent serious bias in estimation outcomes.Therefore,the paper introduces the variable of direct investment of the United States in China and constructs instrumental variables with Bartik method to examine the impact of trade and investment on the labor market of the United States.The research shows that:under the dual effects of China's exports to the United States and outward foreign direct investment of the United States,the labor force of the United States will experience cross-regional mobility,which contradicts the core hypothesis of the research framework of“China Syndrome”and shakes the foundation of its conclusions;even if its research framework is accepted,China's exports to the United States have no comprehensive and significant negative impact on the overall level of the labor market of the United States,but rather significantly increase the wage level of manufacturing workers after the variable of direct investment of the United States in China is included;although direct investment of the United States in China exerts a significant negative effect,the paper estimates that its total impact on the decline in manufacturing employment of the United States is only 2.1%.Given that direct investment of the United States in China only accounts for a very small portion of the total outward direct investment of the United States,the problems in the labor market of the United States should not be attributed to China.