基于生产“三循环”的东北地区空间不均衡发展现象分析

Analysis of spatial uneven development related to Northeast China based on"ternary circulation"of production

2010年以来,中国东北地区经济增速呈现逐渐下滑的现象成为中国空间发展不均衡的重要问题。本文基于空间政治经济学和产业地理学理论,构建空间不均衡发展与东北地区(黑龙江、吉林、辽宁3省)经济增速下滑现象成因的理论和经验统一的分析框架。研究发现:①空间不均衡发展是资本在空间中运动的结果,生产网络的空间变迁与东北地区经济增速下滑密切相关。②2002—2007年东北地区迅速参与到“国际循环”和“国内循环”的产业链垂直分工中,东北地区和国内其他地区协同均衡发展。③2007—2010年东北地区“国际循环”和“国内循环”参与度均受到外需严重冲击,“区内循环”由于政府刺激计划而有所提升,经济维持高速增长。④2010—2017年外需冲击的产业链关联效应和区域市场的贸易替代效应逐步显现,东北地区制造业“三循环”参与度竞争性下降,导致东北地区经济增速逐渐下滑出现。本文旨在为研究中国空间不均衡发展问题的成因和经验研究策略提供一个新思路,并为推动东北地区深度融入新发展格局,促进经济重振提供政策建议。

The"New Northeast China Phenomenon",marked by a sharp drop in economic growth,has gained prominence as a matter of uneven development in China since 2010.Based on theories of spatial political economy and industrial geography,this study develops a theoretical and empirical analytical framework for the causes of uneven development and the"New Northeast China Phenomenon".The study finds that:The uneven development is the result of capital movement in space,and the sharp decline in economic growth in Northeast China is closely related to spatial shifts in production networks.From 2002 to 2007,the Northeast region quickly participated in the vertical division of labor in the industrial chain of"international circulation"and"national circulation",enabling coordinated and balanced development between the Northeast region and other domestic regions.From 2007 to 2010,the Northeast region's involvement in both"international circulation"and"national circulation"was severely damaged by external demand shocks,while"regional circulation"was enhanced by government stimulus programs,sustaining high economic growth.From 2010 to 2017,the industrial chain correlation effect and trade substitution effect caused by external demand shocks began to emerge.The participation of the manufacturing industry in the Northeast region in the"ternary circulation"has decreased due to intensified competition and precipitating the"New Northeast China Phenomenon".This paper aims to offer fresh perspectives on the causal factors and empirical research strategies regarding China's uneven development,as well as policy recommendations to facilitate the Northeast region's deeper integration into the new development paradigm for economic revitalization.