基于民族志和复杂社会网络的缅甸北部地缘政治分析

Geopolitical analysis of northern Myanmar based on ethnography and complex social network

地缘政治日益成为民族志和社会网络的研究对象和议程。目前中国在缅甸少数民族地方武装问题方面遭遇诸多误解和非议,美西方认为中国通过复杂跨境网络持续支持着缅北少数民族地方武装(简称民地武),使其“剿而不灭”且冲突持续。在此背景下,本文运用民族志的分析框架和社会网络分析方法,从“生存决策机制”入手,将缅北民地武获取的生存性资料分解为资料获得、复杂社会网络资料获得与否及复杂社会网络资料获得多少3个阶段,运用Triple-Hurdle模型实证检验了中缅跨境复杂社会网络(简称跨境复杂网络)对民地武生存性资料获取的影响,并考察了交易成本的中介作用机制;同时讨论了民族志方法亦能为地缘政治研究提供崭新方法和视角,成为地缘政治研究常用且合理的手段,以阐明地缘政治纳入民族志的研究对象和议程的紧迫性。具体结论为:①在有无交易成本的影响下,跨境复杂网络对缅北冲突持续性及民地武生存性资料获得的影响都以不确定性、消极影响、正向影响程度微弱等占据主导和主要,即中缅间的跨境复杂网络对缅北冲突的持续无直接必然关系;②交易成本发挥了中介作用,交易成本的降低与民地武的资料获得的概率和数量不存在显著的相关性,但跨境复杂网络以“扩容”跨境复杂社会网络、增加交易频率、减少不确定性的方式降低交易成本,从而影响民地武生存资料的获取;③受教育程度、年龄、谋生身份等控制变量对资料获得的不同阶段影响不同,存在积极与消极并存、显著性水平差异较大等特征。本文以民族志和复杂网络分析相结合的方式较好地开展了地缘政治分析,丰富了缅北冲突持续的民族志地缘政治叙事。

Geopolitics is increasingly a focus in ethnography and social networks research,with an urgent need for China to address international criticism regarding the persistent conflicts of ethnic armed organizations(EAOs)in northern Myanmar.These critiques suggest that EAOs maintain"killed but not extinguished"and conflict persistence,drawing sustenance from a complex cross-border network with China,gaining essential resources like food and shelter.Employing long-term ethnographic tracking and social network analysis,this study examines the intricate relationship between the China-Myanmar cross-border complex social networks and the conflict in northern Myanmar.It starts with the"survival decision-making mechanism,"which decomposes the survivability data obtained by EAOs in northern Myanmar into three stages:data acquisition,the extent of complex social network data obtained,and the volume of such data.The survivability data linked to these cross-border networks is empirically tested using the Triple-Hurdle model.The discussion emphasizes ethnography's novel contributions to geopolitical research,showcasing its growing relevance and validity in this domain.The findings reveal that:(1)Under the influence of transaction costs or not,the impact of cross-border complex networks on the conflict's sustainability and the EAOs'resource acquisition is marked by uncertainty,negative and weak positive influences,indicating no direct and inevitable link to the conflict's persistence in northern Myanmar.(2)Transaction costs serve as a mediating factor,with their reduction not directly correlated with the data acquired by EAOs.However,the primary role of cross-border networks is to"expand"crossborder complex social networks,increase transaction frequency,and reduce uncertainty,thereby lowering transaction costs.(3)Control variables like education level,age,and livelihood status have varying impacts on data acquisition stages,showing characteristics of coexistence of positive and negative,significant differences in levels,etc.This study's integration of ethnography with complex network analysis provides a comprehensive geopolitical analysis,enriching the ethnographic geopolitical narrative of the continuous conflict in northern Myanmar.