地方政府债务显性化与企业避税行为

Explicit Local Government Debt and Corporate Tax Avoidance

地方政府债务风险问题一直是社会各界的关注焦点,地方政府未来税收收入是影响其债务可持续性的一项关键因素。本文以2015年新《预算法》实施后的地方政府债务管理体制改革为准自然实验,运用强度双重差分法,实证检验了地方政府债务显性化对企业避税行为的影响效应及机制。研究发现:地方政府债务管理体制改革所引致的债务显性化政策冲击能显著抑制企业避税行为。其中,债务显性化的规模效应冲击主要通过提高地方政府税收努力的外部作用机制来增加企业避税成本,而债务显性化的结构效应冲击则主要通过缓解企业融资约束的内部作用机制来减弱企业避税动机。此外,地方政府债务显性化政策冲击对企业避税行为的影响效应基于隐性债务扩张速度、企业现金流水平和产业扶持力度存在异质性分布。本文从地方政府债务显性化的微观效应视角,为规范政府举债融资行为、提升政府税收征管效能以及实现地方政府债务可持续性提供了政策参考。

From the perspective of debt sustainability,it is not sufficient to merely assess the risk of local government debt based on the size of the debt itself.Instead,it is crucial to examine whether the economic effects generated by the debt can sustain its operation.Since 2008,local governments in China have incurred substantial debt to supplement government finances,but this has also distorted resource allocation and influenced corporate tax avoidance behaviors.Therefore,understanding the relationship between local government debt and corporate tax avoidance behavior correctly,and reducing the substitution and crowding out effects of local government debt on tax revenue,is of great practical significance for better coordinating high⁃quality development with high⁃level security,and comprehensively improving the level of tax governance and debt sustainability.This paper takes the implementation of the new Budget Law in 2015 as a policy shock to the reform of the local government debt management system and utilizes a Difference⁃in⁃Differences approach to construct indicators measuring the“scale effect”and“structure effect”impacts of the explicit debt policy.Innovatively,it explores the impact and mechanism of local government debt explicitation on corporate tax avoidance behavior from a micro perspective.The paper further clarifies the relationship between government debt and taxes,enriches the research on the micro⁃effects of local government debt on enterprises,and deepens the understanding of the motives behind corporate tax avoidance.The research finds:First,both the“scale effect”and“structure effect”impacts of the explicit local government debt policy have a significant negative effect on corporate tax avoidance behavior,indicating that as the size of explicit debt included in the government budget increases and the control over implicit debt gradually tightens,the explicitation of local government debt can significantly suppress corporate tax evasion behaviors.Second,in terms of the mechanism of action,the“scale effect”impact of the explicit debt policy mainly increases the cost of tax avoidance for enterprises through the external mechanism of enhancing local government tax efforts,as policies allowing local governments to issue bonds independently weaken the substitution effect of government debt on tax revenue.Conversely,the“structure effect”impact mainly reduces the motivation for corporate tax avoidance through the internal mechanism of easing corporate financing constraints,as strict control over new implicit debt eases the crowding out of corporate financing by government debt.Third,from the perspective of heterogeneity in the test results,the impact of the policy shows a heterogeneous distribution based on the speed of implicit debt expansion,the level of corporate cash flow,and the intensity of industry support.Specifically,in regions with faster expansion of implicit debt before the reform,the impact of the explicit debt policy is more pronounced.The“scale effect”impact is more evident in sample groups with lower cash flow levels and not supported by national key projects,while the“structure effect”impact is more significant in sample groups with higher cash flow levels and supported by national key projects.Based on the conclusions above,this paper proposes three policy recommendations:First,continuously and deeply advance the reform towards debt explicitation.It is essential to adhere to the basic principle of“opening the front door while blocking the back door,”and to continue the explicitation of local government debt from both scale and structure aspects.This approach aims to weaken the substitution effect of local debt on tax revenue and further enhance fiscal sustainability.Second,adopt multiple measures to enhance the liquidity of the local bond market.It is necessary to construct a multi⁃level local government bond market system,further easing corporate financing constraints through optimized resource allocation,thereby reducing the distortion effects of government borrowing on corporate tax avoidance behavior.Third,the allocation of debt limits and the legalization of tax collection and administration must be carefully balanced.Reasonable allocation of local government debt limits should be pursued alongside stimulating local tax collection enthusiasm.Additionally,establishing and perfecting regulations related to tax collection and administration,constructing a supervision mechanism for local government tax collection and administration,are also crucial.