基于劳动生产率视角的人口迁移与抚养负担探究

Population Migration and Dependency Burden:A Labor Productivity Perspective

中国正在经历人口加速老龄化叠加劳动力人口大规模迁移的复杂情况,由迁移人口引发的社会抚养负担变化的新特点备受关注。使用日本县域数据来估计人口年龄结构和受教育程度不同所蕴含的劳动生产率差异,创新构建劳动生产率加权的抚养比指标,更准确地反映人口迁移对流入地社会抚养负担带来的影响。研究发现,提高劳动生产率和推动技术创新,可以有效提高地区经济发展水平。劳动生产率较高的20—29岁青年、30—49岁壮年人口成为决定迁移人口对流入地社会抚养负担影响的主要变量;对经济发达地区来说,迁移人口劳动生产率加权抚养比低于仅考虑整体劳动人口的传统抚养比,迁移人口劳动生产率越高,对人口抚养负担改善越显著。对中国地方政府而言,一方面因城施策、因人施策,打好人才政策“组合拳”,提高流入人口的劳动生产率;另一方面发挥技术进步在人力资本配置方面的作用,完善人工智能领域发展环境,缓解老龄化给经济高质量发展带来的影响。

China is experiencing a complex situation of accelerated aging of population combined with large-scale migration of labor force.The new characteristics of the change of social burden caused by migration have attracted much attention.In this paper,we used the data of 47 prefectures from website of Japanese Statistics Bureau to estimate the differences in labor productivity caused by different population age structure and education level.We constructed the“Productivity Weighted Labor Force Dependency Ratio(PWLFDR)”indicator to accurately reflect the impact of population migration on dependency burden.Results show that productivity improvement coupled with technology advancement can make contribution to the local economic growth.Of all the migrants,young population(aging from 20 to 29)and adult population(aging from 30 to 49)with high labor productivity are the main variables determining the dependency burden.For economically developed areas,the weighted dependency ratio of the productivity of migrant population is lower than that of conventional age dependency ratio.The higher the productivity of the migrants,the more significant improvement it causes in terms of dependency burden.For Chinese local governments,on the one hand,it is necessary to adapt policies and measures to local conditions by implementing a“combination”of talent policies,thus improving the productivity level of the population influx.In addition,policy makers should take into consideration the impact of technological advancement in terms of productivity.In light of recent progress in artificial intelligence,the related AI development polices can be further enhanced as a way to mitigate the negative impact on high-quality economic development caused by aging.