会展业发展与经济增长关系的时空差异及影响机理——基于海南省的实证研究

Spatial and temporal differences and impact mechanisms of the relationship between the exhibition industry development and economic growth:an empirical study based on Hainan Province

选取2012—2019年海南省18个市县相关数据,采用空间分析和计量经济学面板数据回归方法,分析海南省会展业收入占GDP比重与经济增长率变化的时空演化格局,探讨会展业发展对经济增长作用的影响机制。研究结果表明:(1)海南省及18个市县的会展业发展呈上升趋势,经济增长率呈波动减小趋势,表现出显著的空间差异性。(2)海南省会展业依赖度与经济增长率间呈抛物线型曲线变化过程。当会展业依赖度达到一定程度时表现出负外部效应,阻碍经济增长。(3)海南省会展业通过影响人力资本投入、技术创新、物质资本投入等因素影响经济发展,对技术创新和物质资本投入的影响呈反“N”型。为实现海南省会展业的健康可持续发展,海南省会展业应融入全省经济转型大趋势,同时注重区域差异,因地制宜制定会展业发展战略。

Using data from 18 cities and counties in Hainan Province from 2012 to 2019,this study employs spatial analysis and panel data regression methods in econometrics to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution pattern of the proportion of exhibition industry revenue to GDP and changes in economic growth rates in Hainan Province.It also investigates the impact mechanism of exhibition industry development on economic growth.The research findings indicate the following:(1)The development of the exhibition industry in Hainan Province and its 18 cities and counties shows an upward trend,while the economic growth rate exhibits a trend of decreasing fluctuations;both demonstrate significant spatial disparities.(2)The relationship between the dependence of the exhibition industry in Hainan Province and the economic growth rate follows a parabolic curve.When the dependence reaches a certain level,negative externalities emerge and then hinders economic growth.(3)The exhibition industry in Hainan Province affects economic development by influencing factors such as human capital investment,technological innovation and physical capital investment,with its impact on the last two factors exhibiting an inverted“N”shape.To achieve a healthy development of the exhibition industry in Hainan Province,it is imperative that the industry aligns with the overall trend of economic transformation,while also taking into account regional disparities and developing exhibition industry development strategies tailored to local conditions.