数字经济、产业结构升级与农业碳排放——基于黄河流域62个地级市的实证研究

Digital Economy,Upgrading of Industrial Structure and Agricultural Carbon Emissions--Empirical Analysis Based on 62 Prefecture-level Cities in the Yellow River Basin

数字经济与农村发展紧密结合,为农业绿色低碳转型提供了机遇。本研究采用2011—2021年黄河流域62个地级市面板数据,运用固定效应模型、中介效应模型和门槛效应模型实证考察了数字经济对农业碳排放的影响效应、传导机制和区域异质性。研究发现:数字经济发展对农业碳排放具有显著的负向影响,产业结构升级在数字经济促进农业碳减排的传导机制中起明显的中介作用。此外,数字经济对区域农业碳排放存在门槛效应,在数字经济发展水平和产业结构升级相对先进的地区,其农业碳减排效应更强。分地区回归结果具有明显的区域异质性,数字经济的农业碳减排效应在中游、下游地区更加显著,且因下游享受“数字红利”促使农业碳减排效应强于中游地区。

The close integration of digital economy with rural development provides opportunities for the green and low-carbon transformation of agriculture.This study used the panel data of 62 prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2011 to 2021,empirically examined the effect,mechanism,and regional heterogeneity of digital economy on carbon emissions using fixed-effect model,mediating effect model and threshold effect model.The research found that the development of digital economy had significant negative effects on agricultural carbon emissions,and industrial structure upgrading played an obvious intermediary role in the transmission mechanism of digital economy promoting agricultural carbon emission reductions.In addition,digital economy had threshold effects on regional agricultural carbon emissions.The agricultural carbon emission reduction effects were stronger in regions with relatively advanced digital economy development level and industrial structure upgrading level.Regional regression had clear regional heterogeneity.The agricultural carbon emission reduction effect of digital economy was more significant in the middle and downstream regions.The agricultural carbon emission reduction effect of the downstream was stronger than that in the middle stream because of the“digital dividend”.