多情景模拟下的长吉图地区生态系统服务评估

Ecosystem Service Assessment in Changjitu area under Multi-scenario Simulation

对未来土地利用变化与生态系统服务之间的关系进行深入研究对区域生态安全的保障和可持续发展至关重要。该研究基于长吉图地区2000—2020年的土地利用变化数据,采用InVEST模型和CA-Markov模型进行生态系统服务评估,并运用多情景模拟探讨未来趋势。研究结果如下:(1)2000—2020年,林地、耕地面积呈现波动减少趋势,其他用地类型的面积则呈增加趋势;(2)2000—2020年,生态系统服务方面,产水量呈现先增加后减少的趋势,生境质量呈现出衰退趋势,土壤保持量和粮食产量持续增加;(3)在3种情景下,耕地、林地、冰川和永久积雪都呈现减少趋势,而其他土地类型则呈增加趋势;(4)通过采用熵权法对3种不同情景下的4种生态系统服务的价值量进行综合评估,自然发展情景、耕地保护情景、生态保护情景的综合值分别为0.21、0.76、0.50。因此,耕地保护情景是最优的土地利用情景。

In-depth research on the relationship between future land use change and ecosystem services is crucial for the guarantee of regional ecological security and sustainable development.This study was based on the land use change data from 2000 to 2020 in Changjitu area.The InVEST model and CA-Markov model were used to evaluate ecosystem services,and multi-scenario simulation was used to explore the future trends.The research findings are as follows:(1)From 2000 to 2020,the area of forestland and cropland showed a fluctuating decreasing trend,while the area of other land use types showed an increasing trend.(2)In terms of ecosystem services,from 2000 to 2020,there was an increasing and then decreasing trend in water yield,a declining trend in habitat quality,and a continuous increase in soil retention and food production.(3)Under the three scenarios,cropland,forestland,glaciers and permanent snow showed a decreasing trend,while other land types showed an increasing trend.(4)By using the entropy weight method,the value of four ecosystem services under three different scenarios was comprehensively evaluated.The comprehensive value of natural development scenario,cropland protection scenario,and ecological protection scenario were 0.21,0.76 and 0.50,respectively.Therefore,the cropland protection scenario was considered the optimal land use scenario.