老龄人口健康预期寿命测算研究

Research on the Estimation of Healthy Life Expectancy of the Aging Population

健康预期寿命是评价人口健康状况和社会发展的重要指标,科学监测和评估健康预期寿命及其变化趋势,不仅可以为社会经济发展规划提供决策参考,而且可以为个体和群体健康促进提供科学依据。计算健康预期寿命以一定规模的年龄别人口死亡和年龄别健康相关数据为基础,这些数据一般只有通过大型调查或人口普查才能得到,在非普查年和不具备大型调查条件时,需要用其他来源数据对人口死亡和健康相关结构数据做出较为科学精确的估计,这既是一个学术问题也是一个现实难题。文章利用甘肃省人口相关服务管理系统统计数据结合2020年甘肃省第七次全国人口普查结果,构建了甘肃省2021年60岁及以上老龄人口健康预期寿命测算模型。结果显示,2021年,甘肃省60岁人口健康预期寿命13.86岁,非健康预期寿命5.2岁;健康预期寿命随年龄升高线性下降,随着年龄增长,男性和女性非健康预期寿命差异逐步缩小,老龄人口进入不健康状态后,经历病痛直至死亡的时间男性短于女性;健康预期寿命的提高不仅需要医疗卫生行业持续投入,而且需要在生活方式变革、健康文化发展等其他领域做出更多努力。研究使用的测算模型和方法为后续开展提升老龄人口健康预期寿命相关措施及影响因素分析等相关研究提供了借鉴,测算结果为助老、为老相关决策提供了数据支持。

Healthy life expectancy is an important indicator for evaluating population health status and social develop-ment.Scientific monitoring and evaluation of healthy life expectancy and its changing trends can not only provide deci-sion-making references for socio-economic development planning,but also provide scientific evidence for promoting individual and group health.The calculation of healthy life expectancy is based on the mortality and health-related data of a certain size of age-specific population,which are generally obtainable only through large-scale surveys or census-es.In non-census years and in the absence of conditions for large-scale surveys,it is necessary to use other sources to make scientifically accurate estimates of population's mortality and health-related structural data,which is not only an academic Issues but also a practical challenge.Based on the statistical data of Gansu Province's population-related ser-vice management system and the results of the seventh national population census in 2020,this paper constructs a healthy life expectancy estimation model for the elderly population aged 60 and above in 2021 in Gansu Province.The results showed that in 2021,the healthy life expectancy of 60-year-olds in Gansu Province was 13.86 years,and the unhealthy life expectancy was 5.2 years.The healthy life expectancy decreased linearly with the increase of age,and the difference between male and female unhealthy life expectancy gradually narrowed with the increase of age.After the elderly population entered the unhealthy state,the time of suffering and dying was shorter for male than female.Improv-ing healthy life expectancy requires not only sustained investment from the healthcare industry,but also more efforts in other areas such as lifestyle change and the development of a healthy culture.The calculation model and method used in this study provide reference for subsequent research on measures to improve the healthy life expectancy of the elder-ly population and analysis of influencing factors,and the calculation results provide data support for helping the elderly and making decisions related to the elderly.