黄河流域城乡融合系统耦合协调研究——指标体系构建、实证测度与时空演进

Coupling and Coordination of Urban-rural Integration System in the Yellow River Basin:Construction of Indicator System,Empirical Measurement and Spatiotemporal Evolution

城乡融合发展是新时代实施新型城镇化与乡村振兴协调发展战略的新导向,探究黄河流域城乡融合系统耦合协调发展的时空演进特征对全面推动城乡高质量融合和区域协调发展具有重要作用。文章基于系统耦合视角,从经济发展、社会生活、生态环境等维度,构建黄河流域城乡融合系统耦合协调评价指标体系,运用熵权法和耦合协调度模型,测度2005~2020年黄河流域城乡融合系统耦合协调度,结合Kernel密度估计、探索性数据分析和标准差椭圆等方法研究系统耦合协调度时序与空间演进特征。研究发现:黄河流域城乡融合系统耦合协调度整体呈现稳健上升态势,但子系统间则存在较大差异,相较于城乡经济发展系统和城乡社会生活系统,城乡生态环境系统整体发展进程较为缓慢,其发展水平相对滞后。黄河流域城乡融合系统耦合协调度分布呈分散化趋势,区域间城乡融合系统耦合协调发展差距在持续拉大,随着时间的推演,逐步演变为二层分化式发展结构。空间视角下,黄河流域省区城乡融合系统耦合协调度呈正空间相关性,省区间城乡融合系统耦合协调度的局部集聚特征表现为正、负空间相关性并存。黄河流域城乡融合系统耦合协调度的空间分布重心主要位于陕西,标准差椭圆的长半轴和短半轴略有增长,但方位角趋于缩小。最后,依据研究发现提出系统优质协调发展路径,为黄河流域城乡融合发展和区域协调发展提供决策参考。

Exploring the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the coupling and coordinated development of the urban-rural integration system in the Yellow River Basin plays an important role in comprehensively promoting the high-quality integration of urban and rural areas and the coordinated development of regions.Based on the perspective of system coupling,this paper constructs the coupling coordination evaluation index system of urban-rural integration system in the Yellow River Basin from the dimensions of economic development,social life and ecological environ-ment,uses the entropy weight method and the coupling coordination degree model to measure the coupling coordina-tion degree of the urban-rural integration system in the Yellow River Basin from 2005 to 2020,and studies the tempo-ral series and spatial evolution characteristics of the coupling coordination degree of the system by combining kernel density estimation,exploratory data analysis and standard deviation ellipse.The results show that the coupling and co-ordination degree of urban-rural integration system in the Yellow River Basin shows a steady upward trend,but there are great differences among subsystems,and compared with the urban-rural economic development system and the ur-ban-rural social life system,the overall development process of the urban-rural ecological environment system is rela-tively slow,and its development level is relatively lagging behind.The distribution of the coupling coordination degree of urban-rural integration system in the Yellow River Basin shows a decentralized trend,and the gap between regions in the coupling and coordinated development of urban-rural integration system continues to widen,and gradually evolves into a two-layer differentiated development structure with the deduction of time.From a spatial perspective,the coupling coordination degree of the urban-rural integration system in the Yellow River Basin shows a positive spa-tial correlation,and the local agglomeration characteristics of the coupling coordination degree of the inter-provincial urban-rural integration system show both positive and negative spatial correlation.The center of gravity of the spatial distribution of coupling coordination degree of urban-rural integration system in the Yellow River Basin is mainly locat-ed in Shaanxi,and the major and minor semiaxes of the standard deviation ellipse increase slightly,but the azimuth an-gle tends to decrease.Finally,based on the research findings,a systematic and high-quality coordinated development path is proposed,which provides a decision-making reference for the integrated development of urban and rural areas and the coordinated development of regions in the Yellow River Basin.