基于结构分解分析的产业部门碳排放驱动因素研究--以湖南为例

产业部门碳排放控制是区域低碳转型的关键。基于2007—2017年湖南投入产出表,从需求侧视角对湖南产业部门碳排放增量进行结构分解分析。结果显示:2007—2017年湖南产业部门碳排放由1.95亿t增长至2.86亿t,但年均增长率由6.33%下降至1.52%。湖南产业部门碳增长主要受投资扩张效应影响,其次是消费拉动效应和流出变动效应,2012年后居民消费拉动效应的影响效力增长较快;抑制碳排放的主要因素是流入替代效应和能源强度效应;目前能源结构效应仍较弱地促进碳增长,生产结构效应在2012年后由碳削减作用转变为碳增长作用。2012—2017年,湖南28个产业部门中有10个部门碳排放变动超过500万t,其主要受经济增长“三驾马车”的影响,而技术进步相关因素的影响相对偏弱。研究结论可为湖南低碳转型政策制定提供一定的理论参考。

Carbon emissions reduction in the industrial sector is a key way for regional low-carbon transformation.Based on the input-output table of Hunan Province from 2007 to 2017,this study conducts a structural decomposition analysis of the carbon emission increment of Hunan's industrial sectors from the demand-side perspective.The results show that from 2007 to 2017,the carbon emissions of Hunan's industrial sectors increased from 195 million tons to 286 million tons,but the five-year average annual growth rate decreased from 6.33%to 1.52%.The carbon emissions growth of Hunan’s industrial sectors is mainly affected by the investment expansion effect,followed by the consumption pulling effect and the outflow change effect.The impact of the resident consumption pulling effect increased rapidly after 2012.The main factors restraining carbon emissions are inflow substitution effect and energy intensity effect.At present,the energy structure effect still weakly promotes carbon growth,and the production structure effect has shifted from carbon reduction to carbon growth since 2012.From 2012 to 2017,the changes in carbon emissions of 10 out of 28 industrial sectors in Hunan exceeded 5 million tons,which are mainly affected by the“troika”of economic growth(investment,consumption and exports),while the effect of related factors of technological progress is relatively weak.The results provide certain theoretical references for the formulation of low-carbon transformation policies in Hunan Province.